[Originally published in the Barre Times-Argus and Rutland Herald.]
Israel is 60 years old. There are very few Americans who do not support the existence of Israel. America was there at Israel’s birth and has been its most consistent supporter over the last 60 years. We have stood up for them faithfully and consistently, both in the Middle East and in the U.N. Security Council.
The $64 billion question for Israel is, what does it want to be and how does it plan to accomplish its goals? Will it continue to expand into Palestine through its settlement policies? Is it to be a uni-national Jewish state or a bi-national democratic state?
During its first 20 years, Israel simply concentrated on the process of establishing itself. There wasn’t really much impeding that process. The Palestinians, who felt aggrieved because the creation of Israel forcefully ejected them from their homeland, were spread out as refugees in their own diaspora in the Middle East. It was not a happy time for them as they were never accepted or integrated into the countries on whose soil their refugee camps were built. They were politically noisy, but they certainly were no threat to Israel.
The Six Day War in 1967 changed all that. When the brief battle was over, the Israelis had occupied the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and the Golan Heights. In doing so, they had, at least for the moment, solved some of their military defense issues. On the other hand, they were occupying all of Palestine – a fact that would become increasingly problematic for them as time passed.
If Israel had chosen in 1967 to trade that land for peace with its Arab neighbors, the world would likely be very different today. The Arabs were ready for it, but Israel was not. Instead, what we have seen over the ensuing 40 years has been an Israel more interested in permanently occupying portions, if not ultimately all, of Palestine at the expense of peace with the Palestinians, and Arabs intent on destroying Israel.
The formulation for peace over the past 40 years has been Israel and Palestine living in side-by-side states in peace – the “two-state solution.” There were times during that period when it seemed it might be attained. But today, no one believes seriously that the two-state solution is viable. All one has to do is look carefully, not at the words, but at the actions of the participants and it becomes clear that no one wants such a solution. Why? Because, quite simply, those in charge in Israel want to increase their occupation of Palestinian territory through their settlement program and those really in charge in Palestine want to “throw the Israelis into the sea.”
It therefore seems unlikely, absent divine intervention, that the Arabs and Israelis will go for the two-state solution. Nevertheless, there is still movement on the Palestine issue which is and will continue to be demographically driven. These new realities will drive the Palestinians toward a one-state solution.
One of the most closely held secrets in Israel is a complete revelation of their demographics. How many Jews are there in Israel? How many Arabs? How many Jews immigrating? How many emigrating?
If one takes the combined population totals of all the souls living in Israel and Palestine, Israel contains about 5.7 million Jews (including settlers in Palestine) and 1.4 million Arabs and Palestine (including Gaza) has about 3.9 million Arabs. This adds up to a population breakdown of 5.7 million Jews and 5.3 million Arabs living in historical Palestine together.
The Palestine Arab birth rate is a little over 3 percent and the Israeli birthrate is about 1.7 percent. Arab births are now 63,000 per year greater than Israeli births. With 400,000 additional Arabs needed to equal the Israeli population, it will take six years and four months to get there at today’s birth rates. Some say that situation already exists.
If today’s Israel continues to occupy Palestine through its settlements, the point is not far off when Arabs will outnumber Jews in historical Palestine. If Israel manages to complete the walls separating Jews from Arabs, democracy will take a major hit. This reality is already creating serious tensions within Israel, which is, after all, at least within its pre-1967 borders, a democratic state.
This set of realities is extremely important for the future of Israel. Will Israel choose the democratic or the anti-democratic route? It is also very important for the United States and our current struggle with terrorism, as the lack of an equitable solution to the Israel/Palestine stalemate is an important element in the range of issues that motivate radical Islam against us.
Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief who served, inter alia, in East and West Europe and the Middle East and as chief of the counterterrorism staff. He lives in Williston.
