[Originally published in the Rutland Herald and Barre Times-Argus.]
Israel and Hamas have both declared unilateral ceasefires in the Gaza. History would argue that it is highly unlikely that, barring external intervention, any sort of peace has much of a chance.
Perhaps understandably, Western criticism of Israel over their Gaza incursion has seemed concerned primarily with the carnage inflicted on the Palestinians. That carnage is at the very least unsettling, but the real issue is the highly destabilizing effect that the Israeli invasion is having on the Middle East.
Palestinians believe they have legitimate complaints about their situation today. Having had no tangible support outside the Muslim world for their aspirations, they have resorted to asymmetrical warfare and terrorism in an attempt to get some attention and help. On the other hand, Israelis, content with their lot and not receptive to desires to revisit Palestinian issues, wish only to have some peace without having homemade rockets rained down aimlessly on them from the Gaza strip.
Israel is an economic powerhouse. Palestine is an economic basket case. The Israelis have an efficient, western style military establishment which employs tanks, artillery, drone aircraft and helicopter gunships armed with high tech American rocketry. The Palestinians deploy Toyota pickups, poorly trained fighters, rudimentary unguided rockets and Soviet era Kalashnikov rifles.
We know what the Arab and Israeli people want. They have consistently polled in favor of peace.
Unfortunately, that is not what their leaders want. Hamas, the only democratically elected group in Palestine, want to “push the Israelis into the sea.” The Israelis want to destroy Hamas. They would prefer to deal with the Palestinian Authority, the weak, corrupt and generally reviled West Bank government which they see as a “reasonable” entity with which to negotiate the future of Palestine and stop the incessant rocket attacks.
So, the governments of Israel and Palestine are locked in a struggle which cannot be “won”. Despite that, Hamas has already declared a “heavenly victory.” If the Israelis leave one Hamas member alive who can launch a rocket at Israel, they cannot “win.” Hamas will not push Israel into the sea. At the end of the incursion and the onset of the ceasefire, neither side has achieved any of its long-term goals
Irrespective of how we in the West see the Gaza incursion, most Arabs/Muslims view it as a genocidal atrocity. The result is that the Gaza events are radicalizing the Arab/Muslim world, bringing daily increasing support to Hamas and radical Islam.
Any hope we have to deal successfully with our problems in Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and Palestine and with terrorism, lies in not losing the support of that great majority of Arabs/Muslims who are moderate. We already have lost many as a result of our incursions into Afghanistan and Iraq. Gaza is rapidly making the situation worse and we are losing the battle for those moderates.
That puts in grave doubt the continued existence of the “moderate” Arab regimes that we call our allies. Unfortunately, when Mubarak in Egypt, the Kings in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, the Sheiks in the Gulf or any other “moderate” leader is threatened by a radicalized citizenry, the continued viability of even their form of moderation is doubtful.
Because of the paternalistic, non-democratic, often repressive nature of the rule of such “moderates”, the only alternative to them rests in a radical lslam of the sort proposed by the Muslim Brotherhood (philosophical godfather to Hamas and Hizballah), Al Qaida, the Taliban and the Iranian Mullahs. The rise of Muslim fundamentalism will surely be accompanied by the fall of “moderate,” secular Arab states.
The continued radicalization of Arab/Musllim citizens will promote the fundamentalist cause and essentially finish off most of our hopes for moderation and progress in the Middle East. This will be an ongoing, endless disaster for Israel and will make our struggles with radical Islam and fundamentalist terrorism even more difficult than they already are.
The Arabs and Israelis will not, repeat not, voluntarily solve these outstanding issues. Only sufficient pressure from moderate Islam, Europe, Asia, North America and the U.N. has any potential to lead to a solution. Unless that group is committed to finding an evenhanded, fair solution to the Palestine problem, there is not much hope for progress for Israel, America or our friends and allies.
Such a commitment requires spending political capital to overcome the dug-in positions of the antagonists. Most of the world is ready. America needs to get involved. Is the Obama administration prepared to spend such capital, where the Bush administration clearly was not? Does our currently diminished reputation in the world permit that? If not, can we recoup our old prestige?
If all the answers are negative, the future for America in that part of the world and, in the long run, for Israel, is indeed bleak.
Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief who served in East and West Europe, the Middle East and as chief of the counterterrorism staff. He lives in Williston.
