• Home
  • About

Rural Ruminations

OpEd pieces by a retired CIA station chief.

Feeds:
Posts
Comments
« America Must Grasp Climate Change Opportunity
Muslims don’t down airplanes, bombs down airplanes »

Is Obama sending mixed messages on war?

January 3, 2010 by Haviland Smith

[Originally published in the Barre Times-Argus and Rutland Herald.]

he Obama administration, in the face of strong, highly professional, reality-based advice and commentary warning against any Afghan build-up, has decided to go ahead with such a troop build-up coupled with a withdrawal deadline. It would seem on the face of it to be a strange mix. Why raise the ante and simultaneously set a date for a withdrawal that can easily be waited out? What is the military rationale for that?

For political observers and junkies, it is fascinating to look at the “whys” of this policy decision. Certainly it was not based on a rational assessment that the facts on the ground in Afghanistan (and Pakistan) gave any hope for its success. Quite the opposite, history and current realities argue strongly against his policy. So, the decision must have been political.

Perhaps it was based on the old George W. Bush premise that you make foreign policy, not on the basis of the way the world is, but on the basis of the way you would like it to be. There’s nothing new here, as the Bush administration’s neoconservatives always opted for principle-based, rather than reality-based foreign policy.

Or perhaps it was because the president felt hemmed in by the positions he took on Iraq and Afghanistan during the 2008 presidential campaign. He did say, after all, that Iraq was a mistake, but that Afghanistan was a just war that had to be pursued because it was the main theater in our struggle with al Qaida. Of course, the facts do not support him on that, but he may have felt constrained from other considerations by his own campaign position when it came to an expedient policy for Afghanistan.

Or perhaps it was made because, with absolutely no military experience and precious little foreign policy experience, he was reluctant to argue against the Pentagon and the remaining American citizens, politicians and business that share the now discredited neoconservative conviction that military power is the correct, the only decision for all such foreign policy dilemmas. One might think that after Bush, Afghanistan, Iraq and Afghanistan a second time, we could have learned. However, it may have seemed far too politically dangerous to this inexperienced administration to go up against its detractors. Particularly as the vice president is the only one with any claim whatsoever to any valid experience.

Or, perhaps it was made because of the administration calculus that to have gone in any other direction, whatever its possible promise, would have materially weakened the Democrats in the upcoming mid-term elections and ultimately in the next presidential election. The thought of returning to power a Republican Party that seems to have no policy of its own, other than to be against everything the Democrats want to do, must be terrifying to the White House and the Democratic caucus.

Or, perhaps it was made in the hope of neutralizing the Republicans’ military trump card by playing it. Of course, that wouldn’t work if you told your own generals, who are good at war, but not necessarily good at politics, that they are very likely wrong when they say they can “succeed.”

Or perhaps he really believes that he will not lose his core supporters when they digest all the “perhapses” and realize that absent the choice he made, the Democrats might be consigned to the political dust heap in 2010 and 2012, thus losing the opportunity to implement their more significant domestic agenda.

Or perhaps, worst of all, the president has settled on the same cynical exit strategy that Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger employed in Viet Nam, where, understanding they could not win, they sought a “decent interval” between the decision to withdraw and the actual withdrawal. That might be fine for them, but what about the troops and treasure we will lose while watching our Afghan demise.

Perhaps it was all of the above combined. Whatever the truth, it would appear that this Obama Afghan policy will shake out as one of the most crassly political decisions made by a recent president.

However, he says he has done his due diligence. He has chosen his policy and begun its implementation. All we can do is wish him well and pray that in the face of inevitable, historical and contemporary realities, something positive will come of his decision.

Barring major developments in Afghanistan/Pakistan, or the opportunity to eat his words, this is the last this writer intends to offer on that subject until there is some resolution of the problem that now faces us. Everything that could have been said has been said and there is no reason to keep on beating this dead horse.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief who served in East and West Europe, the Middle East and as chief of the counterterrorism staff. He lives in Williston.

Share this:

  • Twitter
  • Facebook

Like this:

Like Loading...

Related

Posted in Afghanistan |

  • Search all posts

  • Newest Posts

    • TRUMP AT WAR WITH AMERICA
    • WHERE IS THE WORLD HEADED?
    • Democratic socialism and the coming election
  • Posts by Category

    • Afghanistan (34)
    • CIA (23)
    • Democracy (7)
    • Egypt (6)
    • foreign policy (104)
    • Gulf (1)
    • Insurgency (3)
    • intelligence (22)
    • Iran (18)
    • Iraq (44)
    • ISIS (1)
    • Israel/Palestine (27)
    • Lebanon (2)
    • Libya (2)
    • Middle East (60)
    • Military Polilcy (8)
    • NATO (1)
    • Pakistan (2)
    • Revolution (2)
    • Russia (20)
    • Syria (11)
    • terrorism (53)
    • Uncategorized (25)
    • United States (88)
    • Yugoslavia (4)
  • Posts by Date

    • March 2020 (2)
    • February 2020 (1)
    • September 2019 (2)
    • August 2019 (5)
    • February 2018 (2)
    • January 2018 (1)
    • December 2017 (1)
    • October 2017 (1)
    • September 2017 (1)
    • June 2017 (1)
    • May 2017 (2)
    • April 2017 (1)
    • March 2017 (2)
    • February 2017 (3)
    • January 2017 (1)
    • November 2016 (1)
    • October 2016 (1)
    • June 2016 (4)
    • February 2016 (1)
    • December 2015 (1)
    • October 2015 (1)
    • September 2015 (1)
    • August 2015 (4)
    • May 2015 (1)
    • March 2015 (1)
    • February 2015 (1)
    • November 2014 (1)
    • August 2014 (1)
    • June 2014 (1)
    • May 2014 (1)
    • February 2014 (1)
    • December 2013 (1)
    • November 2013 (1)
    • August 2013 (3)
    • July 2013 (1)
    • June 2013 (1)
    • May 2013 (1)
    • March 2013 (4)
    • February 2013 (2)
    • January 2013 (2)
    • December 2012 (2)
    • November 2012 (1)
    • October 2012 (1)
    • September 2012 (2)
    • August 2012 (1)
    • July 2012 (1)
    • June 2012 (1)
    • May 2012 (1)
    • March 2012 (4)
    • February 2012 (1)
    • January 2012 (1)
    • December 2011 (1)
    • November 2011 (3)
    • October 2011 (3)
    • September 2011 (2)
    • August 2011 (2)
    • July 2011 (2)
    • June 2011 (3)
    • May 2011 (3)
    • April 2011 (4)
    • March 2011 (3)
    • February 2011 (2)
    • January 2011 (4)
    • December 2010 (3)
    • November 2010 (3)
    • October 2010 (2)
    • September 2010 (4)
    • August 2010 (3)
    • July 2010 (4)
    • June 2010 (4)
    • May 2010 (3)
    • April 2010 (2)
    • March 2010 (4)
    • February 2010 (3)
    • January 2010 (6)
    • December 2009 (4)
    • November 2009 (3)
    • October 2009 (3)
    • September 2009 (3)
    • August 2009 (1)
    • July 2009 (4)
    • June 2009 (4)
    • May 2009 (3)
    • April 2009 (3)
    • March 2009 (4)
    • February 2009 (4)
    • January 2009 (6)
    • December 2008 (4)
    • November 2008 (2)
    • October 2008 (3)
    • September 2008 (6)
    • August 2008 (5)
    • July 2008 (7)
    • June 2008 (2)
    • May 2008 (5)
    • April 2008 (2)
    • March 2008 (3)
    • January 2008 (1)
    • December 2007 (1)
    • November 2007 (3)
    • September 2007 (2)
    • August 2007 (2)
    • July 2007 (2)
    • June 2007 (2)
    • May 2007 (1)
    • April 2007 (1)
    • March 2007 (2)
    • February 2007 (1)
    • January 2007 (1)
    • December 2006 (1)
    • November 2006 (1)
    • September 2006 (1)
    • August 2006 (1)
    • July 2006 (2)
    • June 2006 (1)
    • May 2006 (3)
    • April 2006 (1)
    • February 2006 (1)
    • January 2006 (1)
    • November 2005 (1)
    • September 2005 (1)
    • August 2005 (1)
    • June 2005 (1)
    • April 2005 (1)
    • March 2005 (1)
    • January 2005 (2)
    • December 2004 (1)
    • November 2004 (1)
    • September 2004 (1)
    • August 2004 (1)
    • May 2004 (1)
    • April 2004 (2)
    • November 2003 (1)
    • October 2003 (1)
    • August 2003 (1)
    • June 2003 (1)
    • February 2003 (1)
    • January 2003 (2)
    • December 2002 (1)
    • January 2002 (1)
    • November 2001 (1)
    • September 2001 (1)
    • August 2000 (1)
    • January 2000 (1)
    • August 1999 (1)
    • May 1999 (1)
    • August 1998 (1)
    • April 1997 (1)
    • August 1996 (1)
    • July 1995 (1)
    • January 1995 (1)
    • September 1994 (1)
    • March 1994 (1)
    • October 1992 (1)
    • July 1992 (1)
    • February 1992 (1)
    • August 1991 (1)
    • February 1991 (1)
  • Videos

    • Haviland Smith: VPT Profile
    • The Impact of the U.S. Invasion and Occupation of Iraq
  • RSS

    • RSS - Posts
  • Blog Counter

    • 6,724 pages viewed

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

WPThemes.


Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Follow Following
    • Rural Ruminations
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Rural Ruminations
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Copy shortlink
    • Report this content
    • View post in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
%d bloggers like this: