[Originally published in the Barre Times-Argus and Rutland Herald.]
It appears that violence has reached a new high in the struggle between the Iranian people and their “Islamic Republic of Iran”. Just about any time an opportunity presents itself, anti-government forces take to the streets. Recently protestors have burned police cars, police stations and other government installations and, whenever they could, terrorized the police and militias.
The tough call here is whether or not these protests and demonstrations represent a viable threat to the Iranian government. Will there be a general uprising, and, if so, will it end with the successful overthrow of the government?
During the evolution of the Islamic Republic of Iran over the past 30 years one fact has become crystal clear: The primary purpose of that evolving system is to keep itself in power.
To that end it is estimated that Iran has over 800,000 personnel on active duty; 650,000 in the Army, 100,000 in the Air Force and 70,000 in the Navy. The Revolutionary Guards add an additional 100,000, including their own militia, the Basij. With reservists added in, it is conservatively estimated that Iran can field a military establishment of over one million people. US General John Abizaid called Iran the Middle East’s most powerful military establishment.
This military establishment, coupled with a police force of over 200,000, is perfectly capable of maintaining the current order in Iran, as long as its members do not break ranks and go over to the dissidents, which there is no present indication they would do.
In addition to all this military and police power, the Revolutionary Guards are heavily involved in the country’s economic life, controlling up to one third of the Iranian economy through businesses they own and thus increasing their power over the people.
There are two issues involved here: the ability of the regime to maintain its power and the ability of the military and paramilitary establishments to deal with external threats. They do not appear to be unable to cope with any such local or regional problems.
There is much discontent within Iran, but Iran has a government dedicated to maintaining itself in power, as well as the tools to do so. Iranians do not seek western style freedoms or freedom from their theocracy. They seek simply an improvement in their lives. Iran has a totally home-grown government which, however much disliked by large portions of the population, stems from a common religious commitment to the Shia branch of Islam.
Can external involvement change Iran? As much as the Iranian in the street may like individual Americans, hardly any of today’s residents think of the United States as anything but the enemy. We are, after all, the country that in 1952, took down the only representative government that was ever democratically elected in Iran, replaced it with a despotic Shah and kept him in power for 27 years. Most of the Iranians who liked us up until their 1979 Islamic revolution now live in the west, so there is precious little support for U.S. involvement in internal Iranian affairs. For us to do it and get caught, which we usually are, would be the final kiss of death for America in Iran.
Add to this the fact that the first Bush administration called for a revolt in Iraq after the First Gulf War in 1991 and then offered absolutely no assistance of any kind. When this ended in tens of thousands of Iraqi deaths, the U.S. government was pretty well written off in the region as offering anything positive under such circumstances. So, if there is to be any external support for today’s Iranian dissidents, it will have to come from somewhere other than the United States.
Finally, however much Iranians may like individual Americans, their view of American policy toward Iran and the greater Middle East is quite different. Where they don’t hate American or what it stands for, they absolutely do hate what America does. They hate our policies in Iran and the region.
In that context, any indication whatsoever that America is meddling in internal Iranian affairs or actually planning to attack Iran, whether over nuclear weapons or simply for another round of regime change, will overnight do away with this current discontent with its marches and anti-government slogans. Like it or not, American bellicosity is probably the only thing that is capable of uniting Iranians behind their present government.
Absent such American involvement, there is a high likelihood that the protests in Iran will continue. Where such continued protests are highly unlikely to unseat the present regime, they may result in positive changes in Iranian economic conditions, a fact that might well calm Iranian unrest.
