[Originally published in the Rutland Herald and Barre Times-Argus.]
This is the second of a four-part series on United States counterterrorism policy in the Muslim world. It will run regularly in Perspective.
“Muslims hate us for who we are and everything we stand for” was an almost constant mantra of the Bush administration. But it is simply untrue. Muslims admire our standard of living, our entrepreneurial spirit, our business acumen and our creativity. Many actually like us as individuals. Those Muslims who hate us – and today they come in ever-increasing numbers – hate us not for who we are, but for what we do. They hate our policies.
Unlike al-Qaida fundamentalists, moderate Muslims, while they may have serious complaints about American policy, are not enthralled by the thought of fundamentalist Islam taking over their lives. Moderates represent our greatest potential allies in this struggle with al-Qaida, but they are also easily turned against us.
What turns all Muslims, including moderates, against us is that:
- They are offended by the stationing of non-Muslim, foreign (American) troops on the holy soil of Saudi Arabia;
- They resent the American history of supporting and maintaining powerful despotic regimes that rule Muslim people by force and intimidation;
- They hate us for killing Muslims, waging war in and occupying Muslim countries;
- They would like to see Palestinian aspirations treated with the same respect and care by America as the United States treats Israeli aspirations.
Al-Qaida’s primary goal is the re-establishment of strict Islamic rule in a new caliphate modeled on the eighth-century caliphate that stretched from Spain through North Africa and the Middle East to the eastern border of what is now Iran, and which held sway over what was then the entire Muslim world.
The establishment of this new caliphate is designed to rid the Muslim world of what al-Qaida sees as the corrupting influences of the West. An established caliphate would diminish the power of all those elements in the Muslim world that would today be opposed to al-Qaida goals. That would include virtually all the regimes now in power there, including those that al-Qaida considers to be the corrupt secular Muslim regimes supported by the West.
In 2005, Robert Pape of the University of Chicago analyzed more than 500 suicide or martyrdom attacks around the world that had occurred over the past quarter century. He concluded that “what over 95 percent of all suicide terrorist attacks around the world since 1980 have in common – from Lebanon, to Chechnya, to Sri Lanka, to Kashmir, to the West Bank – is not religion, but a specific strategic goal: to compel a modern democracy to withdraw combat forces from territory the terrorists view as their homeland, or prize greatly.”
It follows that the activities of groups that use such tactics are directed toward local, not international, goals. Al-Qaida is focused on re-establishing strict Islamic rule in a new caliphate. To that end, al-Qaida is doing everything it possibly can to keep the U.S. militarily involved in the Muslim world in the short run. They know that the Muslim world is not yet ready for their fundamentalist caliphate. Al-Qaida “martyrdom attacks” are designed to create and maintain an unstable situation, which, in the short term, the United States will find difficult to leave. They need us to stay in the Middle East in the short run because our military presence daily coalesces more and more moderates against us – and for al-Qaida.
Moreover, they would be absolutely delighted to see us involved on the ground in Somalia, Yemen or any other Muslim state. Our continued presence and military activities provide them with critical advantages they would not have in our absence.
Direct al-Qaida attacks in the West are designed to show the Muslim world how all-powerful they are. They even claim unsuccessful attacks. Such attacks also increase Western insecurity and disrupt their resolve to maintain their long-term interests in the Muslim world. These attacks are not designed to take over the West or any part of it. For that reason, the old Bush notion that “we will fight ’em over there, so we don’t have to fight ’em at home” has no basis in fact.
The key to the future of Islam lies in its moderates. Whoever secures their allegiance and cooperation, secures the region. Unfortunately, today’s moderates are less offended by al-Qaida’s taking of innocent Muslim lives than they are by U.S. military activities and policies.
When America no longer poses a threat to al-Qaida, that is, after American military disengagement, which will come sooner or later, the moderates will become the primary counterbalance to the radical excesses of al-Qaida. Until then, with our military present, killing Muslims and trying to keep the despots in power, we will exacerbate tensions with the moderates and drive them toward al-Qaida.
Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief who served in East and West Europe, the Middle East and as chief of the counterterrorism staff. He lives in Williston.
