Rural Ruminations

Originally published in the Herald of Randolph on January 4 , 2019

U.S. Middle East foreign policy, suddenly unpredictable in the Trump era, is difficult to understand. In a strange way, U.S. pre-Trump policy was mandated when George W. Bush made the incredible mistake of invading Iraq.

If that mistake had not been made and if the US had followed the basic principle of not getting involved in the internecine struggles that have always plagued the Middle East, there would be no reason for us to have even entered Iraq or Syria or to have become involved in other ways in other places like Yemen and Africa.

The decision to invade Iraq has dictated implementation of much of the policy that we follow today. Why? Because that invasion and our subsequent policies have persuaded ISIS that we Americans are the main enemy. It seems likely that our decimation of ISIS, however temporary, will, on our withdrawal, result in the rebirth of ISIS and a renewed attack on all things American. The anti-ISIS policies that we have followed since our invasion of Iraq have guaranteed the creation of an implacable ISIS enemy.

In the absence of US troops on the ground supporting local forces, ISIS will likely regroup without too much difficulty and continue its struggle with us, their main enemy. In that context, much of the region, Afghanistan, for example, will again become sanctuaries for ISIS and other local terrorist organizations.

Under Trump policy we will vanish from the picture without any consultation with local governments. Those betrayed governments, facing terrorist rebirth, are likely to become more openly skeptical of America and less hostile to the terrorists. That will create an environment which will permit terrorist organizations to operate more freely against us and, if we believe what they have already said, to attack us here at home. Incidentally, they won’t be coming over the Mexican border.

When we withdraw from Syria, we will be sending a message that is not in our interest. Ditto Afghanistan, even though we invaded more understandably in retaliation for 9/11. The result ultimately will be the rebirth of ISIS. With us absent, there probably will be no counterbalance to that rebirth. Why should our many allies in the battle against ISIS, having been asked to participate by the United States, continue when we have abruptly and without consultation withdrawn unilaterally from that fray?

In fact, our withdrawal from the region will create all kinds of new problems. It is important here to understand that we have an image abroad that is the result of over 70 years of active involvement in world affairs. This is most emphatically true in the Middle East. That image is not always good. The 1953 Iran coup, our fervent support of Israel, our partiality to the Sunnis and our military involvement in the region have all effected diverse local views of us and our policies. The unilateral withdrawal of our troops will simply be the last straw for all those local governments that have supported our past presence in the region. We will have deserted them. Why should they support us any more on anything?

In that context, the result is likely to affect us almost anywhere in the world. How will the North and South Koreans react when they see us pulling unilaterally out of past commitments? For that matter, will our display of distain for those commitments affect our efforts to create and maintain constructive agreements with foreign governments elsewhere? What effect will it have on NATO when coupled with Trump’s highly negative past comments on that organization?

What will happen with Israel, with the Kurds?

We are following a bad policy, the continuing conduct of war, simply because over 15 years ago, we undertook a really bad policy, the invasion of Iraq. Unfortunately, the worst solution to ending that war will turn out to be Trump’s unilateral, uncoordinated decision to withdraw our troops. It will radically change our world. If any serious thought had been given to this matter, we almost certainly could have achieved the withdrawal without alienating our allies and inviting our own endangerment.

We are on the brink of entering a new world characterized by unpredictability and insecurity. What makes international relations possible? Predictability of oneself, one’s allies and one’s enemies has always minimized conflict, as was the case during the Cold War. When that predictability wanes, as it does when our president pulls his major international surprises, the world becomes a far more dangerous place.

We will be sending a dangerous message to the world as we withdraw unpredictably and unilaterally from the Middle East.