[Originally published in The Valley News.]
It is inconceivable that the president and his advisers have not reached the logical conclusion that their grandiose plans for lraq are unattainable. No serious expert on, or student of, this Iraq adventure—with the exception of those who are ideologically committed to the president’s goals—could conclude that there is any hope of political victory. At best, Iraq will become some sort of loose confederation.
It’s time to view the administration’s current Iraq policy, as well as its goals at home, very differently. Their new strategic goal must be to share responsibility for the Iraq disaster with the Democrats—or, better yet, to make them totally responsible for the disaster in the public eye.
Today’s Bush’s tactic consists of the militarily successful “surge” followed by the concerted effort now under way to convince Americans to wait, once again, for the surge to be followed by Iraqi political reconciliation—which is unlikely ever to come. “Wait” is the operative word. This policy is based on one simple premise: Bush simply is not prepared to see an “unsuccessful” conclusion of his Iraq adventure during his presidency. To do so would be an admission that the administration has no way to “succeed.” That is an unacceptable admission to a president who is inordinately concerned with his image and his legacy. This is all about presidential ego. So, he will do anything and everything to hand an unresolved Iraq over to his successor. Then the results will be the Democrats fault.
There are some Republicans in Washington who have openly stated their disagreement with Bush’s Iraq policy. There are undoubtedly others who also disagree with it but have not so declared. It also seems likely that if that war persists until the November ‘08 elections, other Republicans will sign on against the Bush strategy. Why, then, would any congressional Republicans go along with this incredibly self-serving and dangerous Bush policy? Their only way out of the Iraq mess may be to hang it on the Democrats.
If this new Bush policy works and if Congressional Republicans hang tough and support the president, they may hope they will be able to land the entire mess in the lap of a new Democrat president.
Without support from Republicans in Congress, the Democrats do not have the votes to alter the Bush policy. President Bush is veto-proof. Despite that, the Democrats, probably in an attempt to prove to their constituents that they heard them in the last election, have refused to compromise on any issue.
Largely as a result of the Democrats’ political posturing, absolutely nothing has been accomplished, permitting Bush to push the process forward toward the desk of the next president. In the meantime, the war goes on with all the expenditures of American treasure.
The Democrats are faced with two options, both bad. They can refuse to fund the war, which would be political disaster, since that would leave our troops in limbo and would allow Republicans to claim the Democrats are unable or unwilling to deal with terrorism.
Alternatively, they can do nothing and see the war turned over to the next president—very likely to be a Democrat. And that is precisely the corner into which the Republicans are trying (so far, successfully) to paint the Democrats.
The Iraq war will very likely be judged America’s worst foreign policy disaster. In the beginning, it looked as if it would only take the Republicans down with it. But more and more, it looks as if it will be a disaster for the Democrats and our next, probably Democratic, president as well.
And that is almost certainly the Bush plan: Don’t perish alone on Iraq, take the Democrats down with you. If this proves to be the case, the Democrats will become victims of an incredibly cunning, underhanded, Machiavellian, Republican ploy that may serve the president’s interests and possibly Republican interests, but not those of the Republic.
Haviland Smith is a retired CIA Station Chief who served in Europe and the Middle East and as Chief of the Counterterrorism Staff. He lives in Williston, Vt.