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[Originally published in the Barre Times-Argus and Rutland Herald.]

On the Fourth of July, Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., said he is optimistic that, unlike the Soviet forces that were driven from Afghanistan 20 years ago, U.S. forces can succeed there.

“The Russians were sent running as they should have been. We helped send them running. But they were there to conquer the country. We’ve made it very clear, and everybody I talk with in Afghanistan feels the same way: they know we’re there to help and we’re going to leave. We’ve made it very clear we are going to leave. And it’s going to be turned back to them.”

Leahy, as a senior senator, is normally very much in tune with Obama administration policies, but if this position accurately reflects President Barack Obama’s policy, and the rationale behind it, the president is on shaky ground.

Why the Soviets and America got involved in Afghanistan is clear. The Soviets were there at the request of the then-ruling government of Afghanistan, the Marxist People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan to fight against the Islamist mujahideen resistance, which was trying to take over Afghanistan. The Soviets did not enter Afghanistan to conquer it, they went in to destroy the government’s enemy and maintain the PDPA in power. They failed.

And why are we there?

America first invaded Afghanistan because much of the planning and training for 9/11 was carried out there. We have just recently stepped up our troop levels and military aggressiveness in order to conquer the current government’s enemy (the Taliban) and turn the country over to its current leaders (Hamid Karzai and Co.). We probably will fail.

From the Afghan perspective, apart from the fact that we represent democracy and the Soviets represented Communism, there is no difference in our motivation. We both invaded for our own political reasons. After “victory,” we and the Soviets planned to hand the country over to our respective “friends.”

The situation is complicated by what Afghans and other Middle Easterners think really motivates us. They are used to having Russia as a neighbor. It’s déjà vu. As a country with no winter access to the oceans because it has only northern ports, Russia has been trying for centuries to force its way into warm water ports to its south.

America is a totally different matter. With very little history of military involvement in the region, suddenly we are seen invading Afghanistan and Iraq. The only conclusion Islam can make is that America is the new crusader. This is simply because the most memorable and formative thing that has come at them from Europe and points west has been the Crusades of the 12th and 13th centuries.

During the lead-up to the Iraq invasion, there was much discussion in Republican and neoconservative circles about bringing democracy to Iraq. What do you suppose the difference is between a Muslim being brought Christianity in the first crusades and democracy in the current crusade? There is no difference. Make no mistake about it, the prevalent opinion in Islam, specifically including Afghanistan, is that Americans are the new crusaders.

The real question here is why we think we are going to be successful when no other country has succeeded in conquering Afghanistan? Anyone who reads history knows the odds against success are unlimited. There are a lot of reasons for that history: inhospitable terrain, tribalism, xenophobia, corruptibility, bellicosity, and more.

All those foreign invasions of Afghanistan over the centuries failed because they were undertaken for the benefit of the invaders, not the Afghans. Ours is no different.

Historically, counterinsurgencies seldom win because the insurgents hold most of the cards. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates says we will require a five- to 10-year timeline to defeat the Taliban insurgency. Any U.S.-run and financed counterinsurgency is viable only as long as American voters support it. That support will require visible, sustainable progress of the type we are unlikely to see.

American public support, weary after six years of questionable military involvement in the region, will wane. All the Afghans have to do is successfully avoid final defeat, which they certainly can do.

Like George W. Bush, all this president will have accomplished is to kick the Afghan can further down the road for a future administration without solving anything.

That cannot be a legacy President Obama would seek.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief who served in East and West Europe, the Middle East, as chief of the counterterrorism staff and as executive assistant in the director’s office. He lives in Williston.

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Respecting the diplomatic path

[Originally published in the Rutland Herald and Barre Times-Argus.]

There are a number of ways to deal with threatening foreign policy issues. You can deal with such problems confrontationally, which is easy because it requires little real understanding of the more subtle facts on the ground. Or you can be smart and deal with them more thoughtfully and subtly. The problem with that is that subtlety requires patience and intelligence.

We have recently faced just such situations in both Iran and Honduras. While almost all our Republican congressmen and pundits have adopted the confrontational mode, President Obama has chosen to take a different, more sophisticated and subtle approach to the problems at hand.

Republicans in the Congress and the media seem to champion any cause that might conceivably embarrass Obama. The recent Iranian election and its aftermath have given them the opportunity to castigate the president for not being more forceful (confrontational) in his comments on the situation there.

By way of background, it should be noted that aggressiveness has been a standard Republican response to evolving foreign policy issues. It’s part of the Neocon philosophy. Yet, there is ample evidence that suggests that this sort of confrontational approach is more likely to have negative results. Where did “axis of evil” and all the other Bush rhetoric get us? Into a nightmare of a war.

It’s not easy to go the other way. Subtlety and finesse, if they are to be successful, require that the implementer of the policy really understands what is going on in the area concerned, as only a profound understanding is likely to bring success. Our recent adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, examples of aggressive military confrontation, are perfect examples of the pitfalls involved in the confrontational approach. A different, less aggressive approach might have brought a far more palatable result.

Israel is pushing every button it can reach to involve us in military action against Iran. The Israelis would like us to attack Iran directly, or failing that, to condone and militarily support an Israeli attack. Many Republicans have openly supported this approach. “Bomb, bomb Iran…..”

In Honduras, the situation is very similar and very different. To be understood, it must be viewed against the history of various American administrations in the past fifty years overthrowing “leftist” regimes at will, a reality that has created extraordinary anti-American feelings across the region.

Now, a left-leaning Honduran president — who is a friend of the Castros, Hugo Chavez and the other left-of-center Central and Latin American presidents — has been deposed in a military coup. Given our past history of meddling there, President Obama has decided to play this situation very carefully and along with virtually all the other regional presidents and the OAS, has supported the deposed president and the attempt to reinstate him.

The reaction from congressional Republicans is that Obama is supporting all the wrong people in Latin America. This has brought a tirade of criticism focused not on the policy of reinstatement itself, but on the premise that we are in league with the leftists whom they have always seen as their enemies.

In both Iran and Honduras, this new subtle policy is creating real problems for those whom the Republicans would have us confront. The Iranian people know we did not meddle in their riots, partly because we stayed non-confrontational. Ditto for the Hondurans. They know we are on the right side of their issue. Our enemies will suffer more as a result of this new, more thoughtful policy.

For critics of Obama policy in Iran and Honduras, there is no acceptable course of action but to take on the evil doers (Persian clerics and Latin leftists) in a way that makes it crystal clear precisely where the United States stands: Against the Mullahs in Iran and against the leftists to the south. According to those critics, it is impossible to have a valid foreign policy if you do not take the moral high ground and tell everyone else how good we are and how bad they are.

Under that kind of policy, there is no room for subtlety. If aggressiveness worked, it would be OK, but it doesn’t seem to. This new administration is trying a new, more sophisticated way of approaching our foreign policy issues.

Think how constructive it would be if they were not constantly being carped at by the owners of all our most recent confrontational foreign policy disasters.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA Station Chief who served in East and West Europe and the Middle East and as Chief of the Counterterrorism Staff.

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[Originally published in The Herald of Randolph.]

Since the Second World War, the Republicans have said consistently that the Democrats’ main foreign policy problem is that they are either unable or unwilling to successfully and purposefully project American power abroad.  In this context, there are  three means by which we can project power abroad: We can do it with military operations, we can do it with covert, regime change/intelligence operations and we can do it with diplomatic operations.

Over those sixty-odd years, American administrations are said to have been involved in 32 cases of either  military or covert intelligence projections of power in which we have attempted to overthrow sitting governments.  They range from Korea through Iran and Cuba to Bosnia and Afghanistan. Democrat administrations have been involved in 10 of those operations where Republicans have supported 22. Some, like Korea, Cuba, Afghanistan and Iraq have been supported by both Republican and Democrat administrations.

Thus,  it would appear that, successful or not, Republicans are better than twice as  likely to project power through military or intelligence operations than are  the Democrats.

Just what have all those  operations really done for America?  Let’s examine alleged US  Intelligence or regime change operations first. Consider Iran (1953),  Guatemala (1954), Costa Rica (1955), Syria 1957), Indonesia (1958), Dominican  Republic (1960), Peru (1960), Equador (1960), Congo (1960), Cuba (1961),  Brazil (1964), Chile (1972), Angola (1975) and Nicaragua (1981).  Our  “success” in installing Shah Reza Pahlavi in Iran haunts us to this day.   Cuba helped solidify Castro in power.  The remaining Latin America  operations left us with a “big brother”, negative legacy that still infuriates  our Latin neighbors.  Ditto those in Africa and Islam.

Our military projections of power can be  examined in Korea (1950-53), Viet Nam (1961-73), Lebanon (1982-84), Grenada  (1983), Panama (1989), Iraq (Gulf) (1991), Somalia (1993), Bosnia (1994-95),  Kosovo (1999), Afghanistan (2001-date) and Iraq (2003-date). With the possible  exception of Bosnia and Kosovo where we have dampened ethnic hatred at least  for the moment (a positive outcome) and maybe Panama, all of which were of  relatively minor international importance, it is really hard to see the  benefits of our other, larger scale, military adventures.  Korea remains  divided and leaves a nuclear North Korea.  Viet Nam was a loss.   Afghanistan and Iraq do not look likely to be wins.

So, in relation to the amount of US national treasure poured into these military and intelligence adventures, he return seems pretty meager.   That was obvious from the start in  Korea and Viet Nam where we were motivated by a largely imagined communist  threat. Yet, we went ahead, repeating the same behaviors for over sixty years, always finding a questionable, illusory threat, now terrorism, to  justify our actions.  And we still haven’t stopped.  Or have we?
Surprisingly, President Obamahas chosen to  prolong the Iraq and Afghanistan operations, yet it would seem from his recent  statements that a really basic change is underway in our foreign policy.   He says we are not at war with Islam.  He speaks of “respect” for  Islam and of talking with Iran and perhaps even with the Taliban.  It  seems likely this new president is going to employ the most underused tool of  power projection in our national arsenal, one that has not seen the light of  day for almost eight years. – Diplomatic power.

And what happens?  President Obama  is attacked immediately by a cross-section of the press and the entire  political spectrum as soft on terror, soft on Iran, soft on Islam, and soft on  our enemies whoever they may be. Comfortable with the clearly unsuccessful  past, these critics see anything other than confrontation with our adversaries  as appeasement at best and capitulation at  worst.

Today’s  Republicans have come full circle. They have had their fling at projecting  power through military and intelligence operations at the expense of coalition  building and diplomacy. By any reasonable standard, they have come up empty.   There is really nothing left for them to do but paint today’s Democrats  as capitulators and appeasers who are soft on everything and unwilling or  unable to appropriately project American power abroad!

If we read history, which most politicians and many of our most prolific media commentators apparently do not, then it is  time to put our old military and intelligence projections of power aside, if  only because they have not served our interests in the post-WWII world. We have not employed diplomatic power as a primary weapon for years.  We really need to give it a chance,  It is our best if not only option in today’s new, confusing and increasingly complicated world.

Haviland  Smith is a retired CIA Station Chief who served in Eastern and Western Europe,  the Middle East and as chief of the counterterrorism staff.  A longtime  resident of Brookfield, he now lives in Williston.

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[Originally published on AmericanDiplomacy.Org.]

American foreign policy must be based on American moral beliefs, yet it inevitably encounters problems in dealing with regions where belief systems are fundamentally different, such as the Middle East. Moreover, this essay argues, domestic political pressures based on moral and religious beliefs have divorced U.S. foreign policy from objective U.S. interests in the Middle East. The author believes that a more rational policy debate may at last be getting underway. – Ed.

America faces some grim realities when it attempts to formulate foreign policy for regions in the world that cleave to belief systems that are radically different from our American moral and ethical foundation. The problems come in two different ways: First, for American foreign policy to be supported by Americans it must be consistent with our belief system.  Second, once formulated and implemented, to be successful it must also be relevant to the beliefs of the region in which it is being implemented.   When belief systems are radically different, these two realities are seldom compatible.  This could not be more true than it is for American policy in the Middle East today.

Afghanistan’s Marriage Law

American and other Western media have learned recently of the existence of a new marriage law in Afghanistan that they have characterized as legalizing rape within marriage and forbidding married women from leaving the house without permission.

It has made good copy and, in playing on the “backward and anti-human rights” aspects of the law, the media, at last count, have managed to incite protests from the British, United States, French, New Zealand, and Canadian governments, as well as the United Nations and numerous feminine rights organizations. All have responded with righteous condemnation, a completely understandable reaction.

But this melodrama is interesting not just because of its inflammatory allegations of legalized rape, or for discussions of the appropriateness of the Western response to the story. It is far more interesting in the way it illuminates the problems that exist for the West in general, and the United States in particular, in formulating and implementing foreign policies for the Muslim world.

Mohammad Asif Mohseni, a senior Afghan cleric and a main drafter of the law, has said that a woman must have sex on demand with her husband at least every four days, unless she is ill or would be harmed by intercourse. He amplified, saying, “It is essential for the woman to submit to the man’s sexual desire.”

In addition, he has said that the legislation cannot be revoked or changed because it was enacted through the bi-cameral legislative process and signed by President Karzai.

However, Mohseni’s most interesting and telling comment was that “The Westerners claim that they have brought democracy to Afghanistan. What does democracy mean? It means government by the people for the people. They should let the people use these democratic rights.”  He further condemned the Western outcry saying that Western countries were trying to thwart democracy because the results did not please them.

In our culture, forced sex in or out of marriage is equated to rape. It is therefore at least inappropriate and probably illegal here at home.

In Afghanistan, the law that in our eyes “legalizes rape,” was drafted after three years of debate by Islamic scholars and Afghan legislators. Even though it was condemned by many Afghan women, it was supported by hundreds of other women who affixed their signatures or thumbprints to it.

Looking at the new law through our cultural filter, the American government and most Americans roundly condemn such legislation as at least unethical or immoral, probably as illegal, and certainly as unacceptable.

If we were to support this law as a foreign policy position, how would the National Organization of Women, the ACLU, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International, to name but a few, react?  How much support would such a foreign policy get from the American people?

On the other hand, the Afghan government as well as most Afghan men and significant numbers of Afghan women, accept it as reflecting the Koran, Sharia law, and tradition, the bases of Islamic law.  How should we expect them to react when we tell them how to live their lives?  It’s easy to say that there are universal standards that apply in these cases – that they concern fundamental human rights.  And for us, they do.

Are Human Rights Universal?

However, consider the 1948 UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UNDHR). No matter how appropriate and universal it seems to us, it has never been universally accepted. Quite the opposite, it has precipitated a nagging debate that has persisted over the last 60 years. Muslim countries have always objected, saying that the document was written in the Judeo-Christian tradition and as such failed to acknowledge the cultural and religious differences of Islamic countries, thus denying Muslims the freedom and right to a dignified life under their universally accepted Sharia law.

How could anyone possibly object to such fundamental truths as those in the UNDHR, we ask?

Much as we would like to think that our laws and traditions are a perfect reflection of mankind, there are plenty of other humans who would argue that point. Those differences are greatest where the belief systems are farthest apart.

All human beings are victims or beneficiaries of their own ethnocentric cultural environments and biases. Laws exist as contemporary forms of cultural traditions, and when one culture begins to tell another very different culture what is right and wrong, there is bound to be friction and conflict.

Who are we to say that our culture is right and theirs is wrong? And yet, that is invariably the problem when we start to tell disparate parts of the world how to run their lives.

Politics and National Interests

Formulating foreign policy in the United States has never been an easy matter.  As a land of immigrants, America has always had to grapple with the strongly held interests of those citizens who came here from the areas concerned.  A further complicating issue is the range of passionately held opinions ranging from right to left that flourish in our democracy and have always existed here.  A policy that satisfies one constituency is often likely to infuriate another.

The result of this is that U.S. foreign policy is more often than not formulated not on the basis of the objective facts that exist in the area concerned, but on the basis of the internal political needs of the political party in power.  In this context, it is normally understood that our policies have to be consistent with our values.  If foreign policy for a given region is out of sync with American values, that fact will cause political problems for the administration in power.

This conundrum is easily observed in the formulation of our Middle East policy.  The issue of Israel and Palestine has been on the books at least since 1967 and perhaps since 1948.  On the one hand, we have a passionately strong and effective pro-Israeli lobby that ranks among the most powerful and successful lobbies in Washington.  This amorphous grouping includes Americans who are the most unequivocal and passionate supporters of Israel.  That group is both Jewish and Christian and includes the Christian Zionists who believe that the second coming of Christ will not occur until Jews occupy all the biblical lands, including Samaria and Judea, which are currently – at least partially – under Palestinian control.

With the horrendous legacy of the Holocaust to unite and motivate them, many American Jews join the Christian Zionists in support of Israel and her territorial ambitions as mirrored in the settler program.  This group is often called “the Israeli Lobby.”

On the other hand, there is a growing group of Americans, both Christian and Jew, who look very differently at the situation.   Their views have spawned increasing interest in the two-state solution and can be seen in the birth of new pro-Israel but also pro-peace groups like J Street.  They see Israel’s West Bank settlements, as well as recent Israeli military activities in Lebanon and Gaza, as counterproductive to their notion of a decent future for Arabs and Jews alike.

This group includes a number of Americans, including foreign policy experts, who simply believe that there is a growing divergence in the perceived national interests of the United States and Israel.  This situation has been aggravated by the recent bellicosity of the new right-leaning Israeli government and its stated animosity toward Iran.  This has been manifested in increasing support for a two-state solution and opposition to the settler movement and to Israeli military aggressiveness.

In the past, it was a politically accepted although rarely tested premise that only rigorously pro-Israel parties, politicians, and policies could win American elections.  If a candidate appeared not to toe the Israeli line or showed a weakness on matters that hard-line Israeli supporters did not favor, it was political suicide.  And that may have been true.

Today that seems to be less true.  Perhaps a combination of Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, abetted by the legacy of 100% support of “Israel right or wrong,” has tipped the balance a bit.  The beginnings of a discussion on our national interests in the Middle East, of the healthy kind that always has existed in Israel, but which has been politically suppressed here, is beginning to creep into the national dialog.

Defining Interests

Just what then are our national interests in the Middle East if we define national interests as our country’s survival and security, its wealth, economic growth, and power, and the preservation of its culture?

Survival and security, at this particular moment, pertain to terrorism and to the existence of nuclear weapons in Pakistan and their possible development in Iran.  Wealth, economic growth, and power can clearly encompass oil, trade, our balance of trade, and the national debt incurred by our military activities in the region; and all of those things can be wrapped up in the effect, largely negative at this time, of our foreign policy on the inclination of other nations to support us in our national interests.

We thus find ourselves in the difficult position of facing the fact that Policy “A,” which may very well be the objectively ideal policy to employ in Country “A,” is unacceptable either to the American people or the people of Country A for emotional, philosophical, or cultural reasons, thus making it impractical and unusable.

There really is nothing new here.  This situation has probably obtained in democracies since they began.  In trying to deal with the problem, U.S. presidents have generally gone one of two ways.  They have either done everything as much as possible in secrecy – consider Iraq or Viet Nam – or they have done it openly while trying to help the American public understand what they are up to and why – consider FDR.

There is a lesson here for President Obama.  America has reached this contemporary impasse in the Middle East for two very basic reasons.  There has never been the kind of open debate in America that exists in Israel about the day-to-day happenings in the region.  Such debate has been stifled by one-sided, pro-Israeli American organizations.  That has meant that, in general, Americans have never had sufficient information to enable them to come to valid conclusions about U.S. policy in the region.

That, in turn, means that far too many Americans are unable to understand that American and Israeli national interests, where more often than not congruous, are not always the same.  It is when they are not, as in the case of the possibility of an attack on Iran, that we need to act on the basis of our own national interests in order to avoid very real disaster.

A More Rational Approach

It is difficult if not impossible to change the values of the inhabitants of countries where we wish to apply any foreign policy, but we can surely do better at home.

Absent a real understanding of Islam and the differences between us, it is incredibly difficult, as we have seen over the past seven years, to conceive and implement a successful foreign policy based on American cultural values for a region with wildly different cultural biases.  FDR overcame a similar problem in his handling of American entry into World War II by explaining in excruciating detail why that entry was necessary.

We could use that kind of approach today to our problems in the Middle East or in any other region where our cultural differences are markedly divergent.

This rational approach to foreign policy is a difficult sell.  Despite the fact that the U.S. government and academia were full of experts who really did and still do understand the cultural and political dynamics of the Middle East, we have been unable to make our policies there rational over the past decade.  In fact, many of those policies have been directly counterproductive to our national goals and interests.

The old, irrational way of doing business into which so many administrations have fallen over the decades, has done us so much damage that any move in a more rational direction is worth every bit of the time and effort it will demand.   And it all starts with a totally free and open domestic debate conducted by our national leadership about the Middle East and our interests, policies, and goals there.  For the first time in decades, that may now be meaningfully underway under the Obama administration. 

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief. A graduate of Dartmouth, he served in the Army Security Agency, undertook Russian regional studies at London University, and then joined the CIA. He served in Prague, Berlin, Langley, Beirut, Tehran, and Washington. During those 25 years, he worked primarily in Soviet and East European operations. He was also chief of the counterterrorism staff and executive assistant to Deputy Director of Central Intelligence Frank Carlucci. Since his retirement in 1980, he has lived in Vermont.

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[Originally published in the Barre Times-Argus and Rutland Herald.  Published with a few minor changes in the Herald of Randolph, April 30, 2009.]

American and other western media have learned recently of the existence of a new marriage law in Afghanistan that they have characterized as legalizing rape within marriage and forbidding married women from leaving the house without permission.

It has made good copy and, in playing on the “backward and anti-human rights” aspects of the bill, the media, at last count, have managed to incite protests from the British, United States, French, New Zealand and Canadian governments, as well as the United Nations and numerous feminine rights organizations. All have responded with righteous condemnation, a completely understandable reaction.

But this melodrama is interesting not just because of its inflammatory allegations of legalized rape, or for discussions of the appropriateness of the Western response to the story. It is far more interesting in the way it illuminates the problems that exist for the West in general and the United States in particular, in formulating and implementing foreign policies for the Muslim world.

Mohammad Asif Mohseni, a senior Afghan cleric and a main drafter of the law, has said that a woman must have sex on demand with her husband at least every four days, unless she is ill or would be harmed by intercourse. He amplified, saying, “it is essential for the woman to submit to the man’s sexual desire”.

In addition, he has said that the legislation cannot be revoked or changed because it was enacted through the bi-cameral legislative process and signed by President Karzai.

However, Mohseni’s most interesting and telling comment was that “The Westerners claim that they have brought democracy to Afghanistan. What does democracy mean? It means government by the people for the people. They should let the people use these democratic rights”. He further condemned the western outcry saying that Western countries were trying to thwart democracy because the results did not please them.

In our culture, forced sex in or out of marriage is equated with rape. It is therefore at least inappropriate and probably illegal.

In Afghanistan, the law that in our eyes “legalizes rape”, was drafted after three years of debate by Islamic scholars and Afghan legislators and is supported by hundreds of women who affixed their signatures or thumbprints to it.

Looking at the new law through our cultural filter, the American Government and most Americans roundly condemn such legislation as at least unethical or immoral, probably as illegal and certainly as unacceptable.

The Afghan government as well as most Afghan men and significant numbers of Afghan women, accept it as reflecting the Koran, Shariya law and tradition, the bases of Islamic law.

The 1948 U.N. Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UNDHR) was passed in 1948. No matter how appropriate and universal it seems to us, it has never been universally accepted. Quite the opposite, it has precipitated a nagging debate that has persisted over the last 60 years. Muslim countries have always objected, saying that the document was written in the Judeo-Christian tradition and as such, failed to acknowledge the cultural and religious differences of Islamic countries, thus denying Muslims the freedom and right to a dignified life under their universally accepted Shariya law.

How could anyone possibly object to such fundamental truths as those in the UNDHR, we ask?

Much as we would like to think that our laws are a perfect reflection of mankind, there are plenty of other humans who would argue that point. Those differences are greatest where the belief systems are farthest apart.

All human beings are victims or beneficiaries of their own ethnocentric cultural environments and biases. Laws exist as contemporary forms of cultural traditions and when one culture begins to tell another very different culture what is right and wrong, there is bound to be friction and conflict.

For a major world power like America, this often translates into a form of cultural imperialism which seems to compel us to export our philosophy of life and system of government. One of the many problems this brings on is that when America decides to export democracy an Islamic country, for example, we are heading for trouble. The extraordinary cultural differences between the regions, coupled with a curious inability of our leaders to understand those differences, lead us into situations we might better avoid and which we have great difficulty understanding.

Who are we to say that our culture is right and theirs is wrong? And yet, that is invariably the problem when we start to tell disparate parts of the world how to run their lives.

Absent a real understanding of Islam and the differences between us, it is incredibly difficult, as we have seen over the past seven years, to conceive and implement a successful foreign policy based on American cultural values for a region with wildly different cultural biases.

The best way for America to handle these differences is to show our way of life by example, not by preaching or by force. When we get to the point where we can do that consistently, people will admire our values and seek our systems and there will be no reason for us to try to export them. There is truth in the premise of John Winthrop’s “shining city on the hill.”

Haviland Smith is a former CIA station chief.

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[Originally published in the Randolph Herald.]

It is absolutely amazing and to his infinite credit that President Obama, faced with critical economic and political problems at home, can, at the same time keep multiple foreign policy balls juggled happily in the air. Yet, he has done so and for someone denigrated as a foreign policy neophyte, he hasn’t made a real substantive  mistake.

Obama broke precedent when he decided to visit a Muslim country rather than Israel on his first trip to the Middle East. That was risky enough, but in the course of the visit, he got into an exceedingly delicate area where few Americans have ventured before him.  He entered the fray on the issue of the Armenian genocide.

This issue centers on the deaths of over 500,000 Turkish Armenians at the hands of the Turkish government between 1915-1918. The deaths have never been acknowledged as genocide by succeeding Turkish governments and that denial has become an issue for the European countries which hold sway over the entry of Turkey into the European Union.

It is, to say the very least, an extraordinarily delicate subject for the Turks. Yet Obama did broach the topic and did so in a way that was helpful and, quite remarkably, relatively inoffensive to both Turks and Armenians. His words are thought to have had a positive effect and we absolutely need to keep Turkey as a friend.

In addition, it has been most gratifying to hear the President finally put some perspective in the issue of our struggle with fundamentalist Muslim terrorism and al Qaida. He has recognized it as an irritant and as an ancillary problem, particularly in Afghanistan, not as the existential problem it was portrayed to be under President Bush where the greater the problem he painted terrorism, the greater problem it became.

In further comments, the President appears to have somehow put a dying two-state solution for Palestine back in play. In an environment which has just seen a new Israeli government in the person of its Prime Minister Netanyahu and it’s Foreign Minister Liebermann totally reject consideration of such a two state solution, that solution, the old nemesis of right wing Israelis and left wing Palestinians, is at least once again open for discussion.

From Israel’s point of view, this solution would mean that they would have to give up any hope of retaining the vast majority of their settlements on Palestinian soil, while the Palestinians and their most radical supporters would have to recognize the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state at peace with its neighbors.

More to the point, before Obama’s support of this solution, it was felt by many that it was finally dead in the water, having been killed by both Palestinian and Israeli radicals.  It would now appear to have some life and since that particular solution is the only one that will satisfy any of the needs of both sides, its resuscitation has to be considered a good thing.

In addition to these good things, the President has made two very important additional breaks with the old Bush Administration Middle East  policies.  He has said he will treat Muslims with respect and that America is not at war with Islam. That may not seem like much, but when you consider that the Bush Administration’s policies were the exact opposite and that Muslims around the world believed Bush, the change really is important.

Due respect in Islam is extremely important. It provides the basis for all human relations.  When it is not employed, it is viewed as a hostile act.  Thus, the Bush Administration really was at war with Islam for they showed that hostility every day with their jingoistic language and macho, good vs. evil  rhetoric – “Axis of Evil”, “rogue states”, “outposts of tyranny”, “enemies of freedom”, dead or alive”, “bring ‘em on” to name but a few.  And all of this to create and support, through fomenting fear at home and hatred abroad, the Neoconservative goal of the ”long war”.

A return to due respect and civility will be absolutely critical if we are to rediscover purposeful and successful negotiations around our Middle East issues with states like Israel, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.  The President has taken the first step in that process, a step without which any such approach would never get off the ground, for It is an unfortunate fact that many Muslims have, for the last seven years, viewed America and its troops as the new Crusaders.  That furthers none of our goals in the region.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA Station Chief who served in East and West Europe, the Middle East and as Chief of the Counterterrorism Staff.  A longtime resident of Brookfield, he now lives in Williston.

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[Originally published in the Barre Times-Argus and Rutland Herald.]

As often as not, newly elected U.S. administrations, Republican and Democrat alike, turn right around and continue some of the exact same failed policies for which they properly castigated their opponents during the campaign, or implement policies previously rejected by their predecessors for good reason.

Any man who has just been elected president of the United States probably has an inclination to think pretty highly of himself. Let’s say he looks at Iraq or Afghanistan and says to himself, “My predecessor fouled up big time in that country, but then, he was pretty stupid and did all the wrong things. I am smart, really smart and I won’t make the same mistakes that he made. So I will do it right and succeed.”

So, the new President goes ahead, as George Bush did after looking over what he and his advisors considered his father’s failed Iraq policy in the First Gulf War and as Barack Obama apparently has done after examining George Bush’s failed policy in Afghanistan. George Bush made a critical mistake in invading Iraq, one his father was smart enough to avoid. Given what he has done in the last few weeks, Barack Obama is in the process of doing the same in Afghanistan by beefing up our military commitment there.

There are some differences. The Bush White House knew it wanted to invade Iraq even before 9/11. 9/11 provided the excuse, so the White House, looking for “objective” support for its plans, bullied the intelligence community into providing analyses that supported the plan.

That is not the case with President Obama and Afghanistan. Absent presidential arrogance, the only thing that can explain upgrading the war is that it has been pushed incredibly hard by the US military establishment. Obama, after all, follows a President who said constantly he would “do what his generals recommended.” With the surge counted as a military success, Obama is stuck with the realities left behind by Bush policy. Would he be the president who “lost” the Middle East? The pressure is really on.

But that really isn’t the issue and there are a couple of points that need to be made over and over.

First, the contemporary reality of Afghanistan: Afghanistan is a very large country currently uncontrolled by its central government. Its people are brave, bellicose, fiercely proud, loyal to their clan, tribe or family, wildly independent, and have a highly developed sense of honor. They are generally corrupt, normally armed to the teeth, ready to fight and good at it, having spent millennia fighting each other and endless numbers of invaders. They see all foreigners as potential enemies and occupiers. And all of this is wildly complicated by Afghanistan’s shared ethnicity with the Pashtun people of Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

Second, the inescapable historical reality of Afghanistan: Greeks, Persians, Mongols, Indians, British, and Russians have all tried over the centuries to pacify Afghanistan. None has ever succeeded for any appreciable length of time. Is America prepared to join this list?

Throughout its history, the United States has been blessed with large numbers of citizen experts, who really know a great deal about the complicated realities of the Middle East. Many of those experts, as long as they are unencumbered with dreams of American Empire, which, God knows, Bush’s neocon advisors were not, have spoken unequivocally about the dangers of involvement, first in Iraq and now in Afghanistan.

What they have said about Iraq, despite the military success of the surge, is that it is not really a country, has very little hope for political reconciliation and that it will probably devolve into sectarian and ethnic conflict once the calming hand of US forces has left, irrespective of when that happens. This leaves the President with the inescapable Hobson’s choice of “staying the course”, or being tagged with the ultimate “defeat” when it all falls apart.

What our experts say further is that Iraq looks easy compared to the realities of Afghanistan and that it has always been that way.

So, we have a new administration that has committed us to deeper and longer military involvement in both Iraq and Afghanistan in the face of centuries of reality that teach us that we are highly unlikely to find ultimate success in either country, whatever definition we give to “success”.

Viable, non-military strategies do exist. It is high time to consider them as alternatives to the unpromising “long war” foisted on us by the Bush administration and apparently to be continued under President Obama.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief who served in East and West Europe, the Middle East and as chief of the counterterrorism staff.

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[Originally published in the Barre Times-Argus and Rutland Herald.]

Americans are currently looking at their disastrous economy with a mixture of fear and concern. Given what’s happening in Washington, Wall Street and Main Street, those are understandable concerns. After all, what is our country going to look like in one year? Five years? Ten years?

But then, how many of us think about the impact on the rest of the world of identical problems to those that are now vexing us here at home? In this interconnected world, those foreign impacts could be even greater on us than those that seem to apply only to our economy.

The issue here is a loss of international political stability and its effect on American national interests around the world.

Perhaps the greatest single impact of the global downturn lies in the plummeting price of crude oil.

Most oil producing countries have economies that are wholly or largely dependent on oil and about half of the 15 largest oil producers are heavily dependent on the actual price being paid for it. Many of the countries that are heavily dependent on oil for their well-being have marginal economies. When they are in any way threatened, those marginal economies can become a source of real national unrest. Iran is such a country. During the past few years, there have been increasing internal complaints about the Iranian economy. A drop in the price of oil will simply increase pressure on the government, as the economy is not sufficiently diverse to permit some other sector to take up the slack. Unchecked, this will lead to instability in Iran

The potential for instability lies not just in Iran, it is there all over the oil-producing world in countries we have long supported and thought of as our friends. Think about Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Nigeria and Algeria. This has been true in just about all those countries simply because none of them are democratic, all of them have significant domestic dissent and all are vulnerable to radicalism. Toss in Russia, Mexico, and Brazil and ask whether or not it is in our interest for there to be unrest in those countries.

In the days of $140 per barrel crude, such countries set their priorities on the basis of that price. In some cases, the budgets that evolved to meet the demands of the populations of those countries were understood to be unworkable if the price of crude slipped below a specific price per barrel.

With the price of crude now substantially below the minimum required by many oil exporters to meet their internal budgetary requirements and thus the basic requirements for national stability, the potential for trouble is very real.

China’s situation is very complicated. The one thing that motivates the regime in China is maintaining stability. In order to maintain stability, they feel they must have an annual GDP growth rate of around 10 percent. That means that China requires that 8 million to 9 million new jobs be created a year, all in the name of maintaining stability.

Yet, in 2009’s economic downturn, China will see between 15 million to 20 million new, jobless, migrant workers. Even in a rising economy, it would take over two years to create jobs for them. Take no pleasure in Chinese instability. An unstable nation of 1.3 billion souls is the last thing in the world we want.

Russia is no better off. The recent resurgence of a Russia looking to reestablish the old Soviet position of eminence and influence on the world scene was enabled by the riches brought by their recently established oil wealth. Russia’s ability to fulfill those international aspirations, as well as their ability to satisfy the needs of their own population, will be directly and negatively impacted by the recent drop in crude prices. Today’s bothersome and pushy Russia is far preferable to an unstable Russia.

The international economic downturn is a threat to the United States because it creates political instability. Instability is dangerous to us regardless of whether the country involved is a friend or foe. It is dangerous because there is no way to predict the ultimate outcome of political instability.

In the Muslim world with oil producers and non-producers, it could easily consist of the radicalization of the countries involved. Our old, undemocratic allies, faced with major economic shortfalls and lacking any real internal political support, could see Muslim fundamentalism emerge as a major threat to their stability. The same could easily become true in any country that does not enjoy the support of its people. That could involve our Allies as well as our enemies.

Thanks largely to the excesses of Western greed that lead to the global economic collapse, the world is about to enter a period of what could easily turn into economic chaos. At the very least, we are heading for international economic instability and a time when political instability already grips the Middle East and parts of Africa and Asia.

Instability has always fostered revolution. We could be heading now toward the onset of a world-wide revolutionary period that will test American leadership.

Haviland Smith writes about foreign policy.

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Welcoming A New Foreign Policy

President Obama made his first visit to an Executive Branch agency on his fourth day in office.  He made it (horrors!!) to the State Department and that has caused a stir of comment in the media.  Apparently, at least recently, Presidents have made their first such visits to the Defense Department.

What are we to make of this alleged “break with tradition”?  However, before examining that, understand that this tradition was clearly not broken by mistake.  It was a forceful, practical and philosophical statement by the new President.

During the Bush administration, with the Neoconservatives in power, it made sense that the first visit would be to the Pentagon.  After all, the Neocons disparaged everything that had to do with diplomacy.  They saw diplomacy as irrelevant in their idyllic, US-run “unipolar world”.   They saw international organizations, like the UN and Nato and alliances with individual nations as counterproductive to their basic conviction that unilateral military power is the first tool to be used in the conduct of foreign policy.

In short, under Bush, neoconservative foreign policy held that the views and needs of our friends and allies were irrelevant in the context of our own national imperatives.  That attitude is what got us into Iraq and it is at the root of what has gone wrong in our overall Middle East policy.  We so alienated our old friends and allies that they refused to support us militarily, politically, economically or psychologically.

The realities of Iraq have shown clearly the folly in pursuing that policy.  It really doesn’t matter how militarily powerful you are, it’s hard to succeed without friends and allies.

Nevertheless, under Bush and the Neocons, the military held preeminent influence in the executive branch of the US Government, not just in military matters, but in foreign policy as well.  President Bush would underline that fact in his “first visits” to the Pentagon, as would any of his predecessors who accepted the primacy of the military establishment in the US Government’s foreign policy.

President Obama apparently broke tradition by visiting the State Department first and in the process of doing so established some additional new markers.

In his comments at State, the new president underlined his commitment to seek an equitable solution in Palestine.  If there is to be such a solution, the United States will have to get involved and remain involved to the bitter end, despite the inevitable frustrations that such negotiations will bring.  The United States will equally have to be even-handed, recognizing the needs of both Palestine and Israel.

In addition, the president appointed former Senator George Mitchell as our new Middle East envoy.  That is a total break with the past eight years.  Mitchell, a skilled and proven negotiator, has taken no public position on the Palestine issue except to say that the ongoing 60 year conflict has to stop.  If he is to be effective, he will have to be even-handed.  And he has started out well.  He is the first such envoy who not started out without being known to be partisan on either side.

The Bush administration didn’t get serious about Palestine until far too late in the game.  When they finally did, they were viewed on the basis of their policies and participation as pro-Israel at the expense of the Palestinians.  The positions taken by the Bush administration during the Gaza incursion underlined the position that they would act only to defend Israeli activities.  In pursuing that policy, they totally alienated the Muslim world.

The important fact is that change is here. The new president has made it clear that in matters of foreign policy, the military, appropriately, will become of secondary importance to the State Department.

Additionally, America will get involved in the Palestine issue. If the Palestinians and the Israelis are to find their way to peace, it will be only with the assistance of an honest broker.  The choice of George Mitchell over the other rumored candidates gives promise that our approach will have as its goal the construction of a fair and evenhanded agreement that will guarantee peace and security in the region.  Without such an agreement, it is unlikely that America will reach even its most rudimentary goals in the region.

All of this is a clear indication that under President Obama, America will return to a realistic foreign policy and that in doing so, it will seek once again to return to a practical and moral position which will allow it to offer itself as an honest broker in the search for equitable peace in the Middle East.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA Station Chief who served in East and West Europe and the Middle East and as Chief of the Counterterrorism Staff.

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The United States of America has no history beyond the beginning of the seventeenth century.  Starting with the Mayflower, thousands of ships have deposited free people, indentured servants and slaves on these shores.  We came here in waves from Britain, Ireland, Germany, Italy, China, Africa and just about every other place on the earth.

What has made us different from most other countries is that we had nothing in common with our fellow Americans other than our land and its short history.  That history has given us some exceptional roots like our Declaration of Independence and our Constitution, a free press and the rule of law.  It also gave us some exceptional stories like our Revolution, our Civil War, our involvement in two World Wars and our halting attempts to make all Americans equal.

America does not have a national cultural heritage that traces our evolution here over the millennia.  We are no China, India, France or England.  All we have together is our common, exceptional experience.

We believe in American Exceptionalism. That is the notion that we have the most exceptional country and system in the world.  With all our faults, our history and our system have served us pretty well, well enough when compared with most of the rest of the world to persuade us that our democratic system is the best.

Now, there’s nothing wrong with feeling that way, even though in recent years the bloom has come off the rose a bit. Our lack of a long, common history makes it important for our cohesiveness that we have those feelings in common.

When stacked up against all the countries, all the cultures, all the governmental and economic systems in the world, America’s democracy is quite simply the best.  That’s what they taught us.  That’s what we know and believe.

This fact is clear to Americans who have traveled and lived abroad and experienced the vagaries of Communism, Fascism, monarchies, Socialism, or religious absolutism.  When we make the comparison, it is crystal clear to any American that we are the exceptional people with the exceptional political, governmental and economic systems.

In the post World War Two era, we were the most promising, most powerful country in the world.  In the end, we saw the demise of our main competitor, the Soviet Union. It’s worth noting, however, that during the first twenty years after the war, none of our attempts to export our democratic system resulted in much good for this country.

Today, our attention has turned to the Middle East where we are involved in an extraordinarily risky process designed to bring democracy, our exceptional form of government, through force of arms to a number of Muslim countries.  We are now paying a price for that and our exceptionalism has caused us nothing but problems.

During the past eight years, we have tossed all our previously held beliefs about good foreign policy out the window.  We now practice unilateralism vs. international cooperation, preemption vs. negotiation, war vs. diplomacy and ideological absolutism vs. realism.

We are the best and to hell with the rest!

On the night of 9/11, the world offered us its sympathy and unstinting support.  We rudely refused and everything changed.  With those changes we have become one of the least respected nations on the planet.  Our national interests have been trashed, our reputation besmirched and our future clouded – all with the complicity of a majority of our voting population.  After all, Americans did re-elect George W. Bush in 2004.

American Exceptionalism served us pretty well for almost four hundred years, mostly when we used it intelligently. At our best, we have led by example.  We have simply tried to do the right thing here at home with our social, economic and political systems to show the world that we had a pretty good system that others could emulate if they chose to.  We have tried to be John Winthrop’s “city upon a hill”.

It’s when our American Exceptionalism prompts us to force our system on other countries, as we recently have in Iraq and soon will in Afghanistan, that we get into trouble.  Some people, most Muslims for example, are perfectly happy with their system, irrespective of how we feel about it.

Although any country in the world can voluntarily import our democratic system, it doesn’t export well, least of all militarily.  We really need to step back and learn.  Maybe we will be able to do that under President–elect Obama.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA Station Chief who served in East and West Europe, the Middle East and as Chief of the Counterterrorism Staff.  He lives in Williston.

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