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[Originally published in the Baltimore Sun.]

The ongoing turf battle between Dennis Blair, the director of national intelligence, and Leon Panetta, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, has brought back unpleasant memories of the ill-conceived and poorly drawn Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004, a legislative process that was started in the wake of 9/11.

It seems almost impossible that there could be a dispute going on over the authority of the DNI to appoint non-CIA officers as station chiefs abroad. It took until close to the end of the Cold War for the CIA to mature to the point where its station chiefs were no longer the product of OSS and the Second World War, but rather of the collective operational experience of the Cold War CIA. Only then did most stations come under the kind of operational management that brought hope for broader success.

And now the DNI wants to put neophytes in those jobs? That is simple insanity. Clandestine operations really do require as much experience as is available. Otherwise, surprises can be very embarrassing.

The simple process of drafting that 2004 law permitted all the knives to come out. It was time for all the angry and ambitious agencies that felt they had suffered or chafed under the overseas coordinating authority of the CIA and its station chiefs to go after increased (if not total) autonomy in their overseas operations. If they could not get autonomy, they wanted to wrest control from the CIA as it was reflected in the role of the station chief. Clearly, what you see today in the tiff between the DNI and the CIA director is a reflection or continuation of that tussle.

All the agencies involved – State, Defense, the FBI, the National Security Agency and others – wanted and presumably still want to be either on top of the overseas intelligence collection effort, or at least free from domination by any other organization. None of those agencies agreed with the concept, as spelled out in the original National Security Acts of 1947 and 1949, that the intelligence community abroad had to speak with one voice and that that voice should belong to the only organization that was involved purely in clandestine intelligence operations: the Central Intelligence Agency.

If you strip away all the politics and petty jealousies, the problem is that there are activities and responsibilities that are best carried out by the CIA, which has been running successful clandestine human intelligence-collection operations for 60 years. They may not be perfect, but they are the best we have.

The other part of that operational collection process is the conduct of liaison with foreign intelligence services. That liaison is critical in today’s operations against terrorist organizations. Liaison services can and do operate highly effectively in environments where it is often extremely difficult for our officers to move unnoticed. Conducting liaison relationships requires the same level of experience and expertise that is demanded by collection operations.

These activities require the best, most experienced clandestine collection personnel in the U.S. government. To vest responsibility for those activities anywhere else at a time when intelligence collection is often a matter of survival is sheer folly. To give an operationally naive DNI that responsibility is irresponsible. It’s just like the Cold War days, when most chiefs of station had been trained for World War II in the OSS. It didn’t work well then and it won’t work well now.

What the DNI can do perfectly effectively is run the intelligence community and the community’s analytical processes. Let them be responsible for the production of Intelligence Estimates. That is an important job that, to an outside observer, appears recently to have been poorly done, particularly in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. What seems to have been missing is the ability or inclination to speak truth to power. To discharge that critical responsibility, the DNI will truly have to control the flow of analysis to the White House.

Of course, what is really needed here is a second look at the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act. Because of the pressures generated by 9/11 and the prejudices that existed at the time, it was poorly designed from the start and contains anomalies that need to be corrected. Given the extraordinary lack of interest in Washington, that probably won’t happen, but at very least the DNI needs to take himself and his growing number of troops out of the operational business.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief who served in East and West Europe and the Middle East, as chief of the counterterrorism staff and as executive assistant in the director’s office.

[Originally published in The Herald of Randolph.]

Since the Second World War, the Republicans have said consistently that the Democrats’ main foreign policy problem is that they are either unable or unwilling to successfully and purposefully project American power abroad.  In this context, there are  three means by which we can project power abroad: We can do it with military operations, we can do it with covert, regime change/intelligence operations and we can do it with diplomatic operations.

Over those sixty-odd years, American administrations are said to have been involved in 32 cases of either  military or covert intelligence projections of power in which we have attempted to overthrow sitting governments.  They range from Korea through Iran and Cuba to Bosnia and Afghanistan. Democrat administrations have been involved in 10 of those operations where Republicans have supported 22. Some, like Korea, Cuba, Afghanistan and Iraq have been supported by both Republican and Democrat administrations.

Thus,  it would appear that, successful or not, Republicans are better than twice as  likely to project power through military or intelligence operations than are  the Democrats.

Just what have all those  operations really done for America?  Let’s examine alleged US  Intelligence or regime change operations first. Consider Iran (1953),  Guatemala (1954), Costa Rica (1955), Syria 1957), Indonesia (1958), Dominican  Republic (1960), Peru (1960), Equador (1960), Congo (1960), Cuba (1961),  Brazil (1964), Chile (1972), Angola (1975) and Nicaragua (1981).  Our  “success” in installing Shah Reza Pahlavi in Iran haunts us to this day.   Cuba helped solidify Castro in power.  The remaining Latin America  operations left us with a “big brother”, negative legacy that still infuriates  our Latin neighbors.  Ditto those in Africa and Islam.

Our military projections of power can be  examined in Korea (1950-53), Viet Nam (1961-73), Lebanon (1982-84), Grenada  (1983), Panama (1989), Iraq (Gulf) (1991), Somalia (1993), Bosnia (1994-95),  Kosovo (1999), Afghanistan (2001-date) and Iraq (2003-date). With the possible  exception of Bosnia and Kosovo where we have dampened ethnic hatred at least  for the moment (a positive outcome) and maybe Panama, all of which were of  relatively minor international importance, it is really hard to see the  benefits of our other, larger scale, military adventures.  Korea remains  divided and leaves a nuclear North Korea.  Viet Nam was a loss.   Afghanistan and Iraq do not look likely to be wins.

So, in relation to the amount of US national treasure poured into these military and intelligence adventures, he return seems pretty meager.   That was obvious from the start in  Korea and Viet Nam where we were motivated by a largely imagined communist  threat. Yet, we went ahead, repeating the same behaviors for over sixty years, always finding a questionable, illusory threat, now terrorism, to  justify our actions.  And we still haven’t stopped.  Or have we?
Surprisingly, President Obamahas chosen to  prolong the Iraq and Afghanistan operations, yet it would seem from his recent  statements that a really basic change is underway in our foreign policy.   He says we are not at war with Islam.  He speaks of “respect” for  Islam and of talking with Iran and perhaps even with the Taliban.  It  seems likely this new president is going to employ the most underused tool of  power projection in our national arsenal, one that has not seen the light of  day for almost eight years. – Diplomatic power.

And what happens?  President Obama  is attacked immediately by a cross-section of the press and the entire  political spectrum as soft on terror, soft on Iran, soft on Islam, and soft on  our enemies whoever they may be. Comfortable with the clearly unsuccessful  past, these critics see anything other than confrontation with our adversaries  as appeasement at best and capitulation at  worst.

Today’s  Republicans have come full circle. They have had their fling at projecting  power through military and intelligence operations at the expense of coalition  building and diplomacy. By any reasonable standard, they have come up empty.   There is really nothing left for them to do but paint today’s Democrats  as capitulators and appeasers who are soft on everything and unwilling or  unable to appropriately project American power abroad!

If we read history, which most politicians and many of our most prolific media commentators apparently do not, then it is  time to put our old military and intelligence projections of power aside, if  only because they have not served our interests in the post-WWII world. We have not employed diplomatic power as a primary weapon for years.  We really need to give it a chance,  It is our best if not only option in today’s new, confusing and increasingly complicated world.

Haviland  Smith is a retired CIA Station Chief who served in Eastern and Western Europe,  the Middle East and as chief of the counterterrorism staff.  A longtime  resident of Brookfield, he now lives in Williston.

[Originally published in the Barre Times-Argus and Rutland Herald.]

Iran has announced the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad by an overwhelming majority of more than 62 percent of the popular vote, cast by a record 85 percent of Iran’s eligible voters. The Iranian reform candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, on whom the United States had pinned much hope for a change for the better in our bilateral relations, garnered a measly 36 percent.

Was there election fraud at work here? One would suspect so, but what we think is clearly irrelevant to Iran’s leadership. What matters to the leadership – the only thing that really matters to them – is that they have maintained and continue to maintain power. That is a truth that America needs to understand and accept. If their power is threatened, the Ayatollahs will pull out all the stops to end the threat.

If you doubt that, look at the content of the Supreme Leader’s speech to the faithful on Friday the 18th.  As far as he is concerned, everything is OK with the election and any future trouble will be blamed on the protesters.

It is clear, particularly if you believe that fraud decided the election, that the specter of a popular, liberal candidate like Mir Hossein Mousavi was simply more than the Supreme Leader, currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the Council of Guardians could stand.  It is important to understand that a change to Mousavi would not result in a new Iranian revolution.  Whoever becomes the president, it is highly unlikely that there will be changes in nuclear or foreign policy.  What the Iranian protest marchers want is some liberalization in social and economic policies, not a wholesale change in government.  Despite that, the Supreme Leader and his allies clearly saw sufficient potential disaster peering at them over Mousavi’s liberal shoulder to take matters into their own hands.  The numbers of voters alone must have jarred the leadership. In short, they are not about to give up power through any means, let alone democratic elections, irrespective of whatever propaganda damage may accrue to them as a result.  In that regard, the Supreme Leader’s recent call to investigate the allegations of fraud my simply be an attempt to mitigate such damage.

The re-election of Ahmadinejad, whether legitimate or fraudulent, will have some major regional and international impacts, but most importantly, it will highlight all the negatives that we Americans see in current Iranian policies. In this context, it is completely irrelevant whether or not the election was fraudulent, and, if so, whether or not Ahmadinejad knows it. What matters is that he will base his future policies on the overwhelming 62 percent “mandate” he received from his countrymen for his past policies. That will make him more difficult, more combative and more cantankerous in his dealings with us. Liberalism and the possibility of change are the real losers in this election.

In purely Iranian terms, this new “mandate” will exist as reality as long as a Supreme Leader of Iran is in place and as long as the Ayatollahs retain power. That power, despite post-election street demonstrations, will not be seriously threatened as long as the police force, the Army and, most important, The Revolutionary Guards are on their side. There is no reason today to think that they are even close to losing control.

The election results will exacerbate Israel’s paranoia about Iran as an existential threat. It will make them more inclined to undertake military action against Iran and that will further complicate their relationship with us. Americans who do not support military action against Iran will see Israel as unnecessarily aggressive. Americans who believe that Iran really does represent an existential threat to Israel will see increasing Israeli bellicosity toward Iran as completely justified. That deepening divide will make decisions on all aspects of our regional policies even more difficult than they are today.

Under Netanyahu, Israel has said clearly that it does not want a two-state solution. In his speech on June 14, his demands for Palestine to have no arms, no control over its airspace, recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, and no consideration of the long cherished Palestinian “right to return” or hegemony over any of Jerusalem, he managed to hit just about every button that is unacceptable to Palestinians and, by extension to Muslims in general. At the same time, his only concession to the Palestinians was the creation of a politically gutted state. It would seem that his formulation was consciously designed to preclude any serious future discussion of a two-state solution.

In response to President Obama’s resolve to pursue that solution, Netanyahu’s coalition will likely do everything possible to avoid any negotiations that would bring down their government and, in their eyes, threaten their national interests. Substantive discussions of Jerusalem, settlements, border adjustments, Palestinian repatriation do not appear to be on his agenda.

The new Israeli awareness of the American position and their own still-evolving attitudes, hardened by Ahmadinejad’s reelection and Obama’s speech, will make a solution to the Palestine problem even more difficult. Everything the Israelis say about Palestine and a two-state solution will be couched in terms of the “existential Iranian threat”. We saw the beginning of this in the Iran-centered reaction of the Israelis to President Obama’s Cairo speech. The result of the Iranian reelection will only harden that position, making any constructive approach to the Palestine problem even more difficult.

Netanyahu’s intransigence stems from his having welcomed the right wing, pro-settler political parties into his coalition government. Absent a change of heart in the more liberal Kadima Party of Tzipi Livni and their willingness to join in a coalition with Netanyahu’s Likud party, the Likud must keep those parties on board or lose power.

All of these issues will complicate the delicate balances and incipient conflicts that have always existed in the region. The tensions, problems and centuries-old conflicts between Arabs and Persians, Sunni and Shia, and Kurds with Turks and Arabs will become exacerbated. Even those farther afield; the Taliban with Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as the issues between Pashtuns and Punjabis in Pakistan will have their negative impacts.

Unfortunately, given our extensive involvement in and commitment to the Middle East, they will all make our already almost insolvable tasks even more problematical. More proof positive that in that complicated region, we are at the mercy of things over which we have no control.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief who served in East and West Europe and the Middle East and as Chief of the counterterrorism staff. He lives in Williston.

[Originally published on AmericanDiplomacy.Org.]

American foreign policy must be based on American moral beliefs, yet it inevitably encounters problems in dealing with regions where belief systems are fundamentally different, such as the Middle East. Moreover, this essay argues, domestic political pressures based on moral and religious beliefs have divorced U.S. foreign policy from objective U.S. interests in the Middle East. The author believes that a more rational policy debate may at last be getting underway. – Ed.

America faces some grim realities when it attempts to formulate foreign policy for regions in the world that cleave to belief systems that are radically different from our American moral and ethical foundation. The problems come in two different ways: First, for American foreign policy to be supported by Americans it must be consistent with our belief system.  Second, once formulated and implemented, to be successful it must also be relevant to the beliefs of the region in which it is being implemented.   When belief systems are radically different, these two realities are seldom compatible.  This could not be more true than it is for American policy in the Middle East today.

Afghanistan’s Marriage Law

American and other Western media have learned recently of the existence of a new marriage law in Afghanistan that they have characterized as legalizing rape within marriage and forbidding married women from leaving the house without permission.

It has made good copy and, in playing on the “backward and anti-human rights” aspects of the law, the media, at last count, have managed to incite protests from the British, United States, French, New Zealand, and Canadian governments, as well as the United Nations and numerous feminine rights organizations. All have responded with righteous condemnation, a completely understandable reaction.

But this melodrama is interesting not just because of its inflammatory allegations of legalized rape, or for discussions of the appropriateness of the Western response to the story. It is far more interesting in the way it illuminates the problems that exist for the West in general, and the United States in particular, in formulating and implementing foreign policies for the Muslim world.

Mohammad Asif Mohseni, a senior Afghan cleric and a main drafter of the law, has said that a woman must have sex on demand with her husband at least every four days, unless she is ill or would be harmed by intercourse. He amplified, saying, “It is essential for the woman to submit to the man’s sexual desire.”

In addition, he has said that the legislation cannot be revoked or changed because it was enacted through the bi-cameral legislative process and signed by President Karzai.

However, Mohseni’s most interesting and telling comment was that “The Westerners claim that they have brought democracy to Afghanistan. What does democracy mean? It means government by the people for the people. They should let the people use these democratic rights.”  He further condemned the Western outcry saying that Western countries were trying to thwart democracy because the results did not please them.

In our culture, forced sex in or out of marriage is equated to rape. It is therefore at least inappropriate and probably illegal here at home.

In Afghanistan, the law that in our eyes “legalizes rape,” was drafted after three years of debate by Islamic scholars and Afghan legislators. Even though it was condemned by many Afghan women, it was supported by hundreds of other women who affixed their signatures or thumbprints to it.

Looking at the new law through our cultural filter, the American government and most Americans roundly condemn such legislation as at least unethical or immoral, probably as illegal, and certainly as unacceptable.

If we were to support this law as a foreign policy position, how would the National Organization of Women, the ACLU, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International, to name but a few, react?  How much support would such a foreign policy get from the American people?

On the other hand, the Afghan government as well as most Afghan men and significant numbers of Afghan women, accept it as reflecting the Koran, Sharia law, and tradition, the bases of Islamic law.  How should we expect them to react when we tell them how to live their lives?  It’s easy to say that there are universal standards that apply in these cases – that they concern fundamental human rights.  And for us, they do.

Are Human Rights Universal?

However, consider the 1948 UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UNDHR). No matter how appropriate and universal it seems to us, it has never been universally accepted. Quite the opposite, it has precipitated a nagging debate that has persisted over the last 60 years. Muslim countries have always objected, saying that the document was written in the Judeo-Christian tradition and as such failed to acknowledge the cultural and religious differences of Islamic countries, thus denying Muslims the freedom and right to a dignified life under their universally accepted Sharia law.

How could anyone possibly object to such fundamental truths as those in the UNDHR, we ask?

Much as we would like to think that our laws and traditions are a perfect reflection of mankind, there are plenty of other humans who would argue that point. Those differences are greatest where the belief systems are farthest apart.

All human beings are victims or beneficiaries of their own ethnocentric cultural environments and biases. Laws exist as contemporary forms of cultural traditions, and when one culture begins to tell another very different culture what is right and wrong, there is bound to be friction and conflict.

Who are we to say that our culture is right and theirs is wrong? And yet, that is invariably the problem when we start to tell disparate parts of the world how to run their lives.

Politics and National Interests

Formulating foreign policy in the United States has never been an easy matter.  As a land of immigrants, America has always had to grapple with the strongly held interests of those citizens who came here from the areas concerned.  A further complicating issue is the range of passionately held opinions ranging from right to left that flourish in our democracy and have always existed here.  A policy that satisfies one constituency is often likely to infuriate another.

The result of this is that U.S. foreign policy is more often than not formulated not on the basis of the objective facts that exist in the area concerned, but on the basis of the internal political needs of the political party in power.  In this context, it is normally understood that our policies have to be consistent with our values.  If foreign policy for a given region is out of sync with American values, that fact will cause political problems for the administration in power.

This conundrum is easily observed in the formulation of our Middle East policy.  The issue of Israel and Palestine has been on the books at least since 1967 and perhaps since 1948.  On the one hand, we have a passionately strong and effective pro-Israeli lobby that ranks among the most powerful and successful lobbies in Washington.  This amorphous grouping includes Americans who are the most unequivocal and passionate supporters of Israel.  That group is both Jewish and Christian and includes the Christian Zionists who believe that the second coming of Christ will not occur until Jews occupy all the biblical lands, including Samaria and Judea, which are currently – at least partially – under Palestinian control.

With the horrendous legacy of the Holocaust to unite and motivate them, many American Jews join the Christian Zionists in support of Israel and her territorial ambitions as mirrored in the settler program.  This group is often called “the Israeli Lobby.”

On the other hand, there is a growing group of Americans, both Christian and Jew, who look very differently at the situation.   Their views have spawned increasing interest in the two-state solution and can be seen in the birth of new pro-Israel but also pro-peace groups like J Street.  They see Israel’s West Bank settlements, as well as recent Israeli military activities in Lebanon and Gaza, as counterproductive to their notion of a decent future for Arabs and Jews alike.

This group includes a number of Americans, including foreign policy experts, who simply believe that there is a growing divergence in the perceived national interests of the United States and Israel.  This situation has been aggravated by the recent bellicosity of the new right-leaning Israeli government and its stated animosity toward Iran.  This has been manifested in increasing support for a two-state solution and opposition to the settler movement and to Israeli military aggressiveness.

In the past, it was a politically accepted although rarely tested premise that only rigorously pro-Israel parties, politicians, and policies could win American elections.  If a candidate appeared not to toe the Israeli line or showed a weakness on matters that hard-line Israeli supporters did not favor, it was political suicide.  And that may have been true.

Today that seems to be less true.  Perhaps a combination of Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, abetted by the legacy of 100% support of “Israel right or wrong,” has tipped the balance a bit.  The beginnings of a discussion on our national interests in the Middle East, of the healthy kind that always has existed in Israel, but which has been politically suppressed here, is beginning to creep into the national dialog.

Defining Interests

Just what then are our national interests in the Middle East if we define national interests as our country’s survival and security, its wealth, economic growth, and power, and the preservation of its culture?

Survival and security, at this particular moment, pertain to terrorism and to the existence of nuclear weapons in Pakistan and their possible development in Iran.  Wealth, economic growth, and power can clearly encompass oil, trade, our balance of trade, and the national debt incurred by our military activities in the region; and all of those things can be wrapped up in the effect, largely negative at this time, of our foreign policy on the inclination of other nations to support us in our national interests.

We thus find ourselves in the difficult position of facing the fact that Policy “A,” which may very well be the objectively ideal policy to employ in Country “A,” is unacceptable either to the American people or the people of Country A for emotional, philosophical, or cultural reasons, thus making it impractical and unusable.

There really is nothing new here.  This situation has probably obtained in democracies since they began.  In trying to deal with the problem, U.S. presidents have generally gone one of two ways.  They have either done everything as much as possible in secrecy – consider Iraq or Viet Nam – or they have done it openly while trying to help the American public understand what they are up to and why – consider FDR.

There is a lesson here for President Obama.  America has reached this contemporary impasse in the Middle East for two very basic reasons.  There has never been the kind of open debate in America that exists in Israel about the day-to-day happenings in the region.  Such debate has been stifled by one-sided, pro-Israeli American organizations.  That has meant that, in general, Americans have never had sufficient information to enable them to come to valid conclusions about U.S. policy in the region.

That, in turn, means that far too many Americans are unable to understand that American and Israeli national interests, where more often than not congruous, are not always the same.  It is when they are not, as in the case of the possibility of an attack on Iran, that we need to act on the basis of our own national interests in order to avoid very real disaster.

A More Rational Approach

It is difficult if not impossible to change the values of the inhabitants of countries where we wish to apply any foreign policy, but we can surely do better at home.

Absent a real understanding of Islam and the differences between us, it is incredibly difficult, as we have seen over the past seven years, to conceive and implement a successful foreign policy based on American cultural values for a region with wildly different cultural biases.  FDR overcame a similar problem in his handling of American entry into World War II by explaining in excruciating detail why that entry was necessary.

We could use that kind of approach today to our problems in the Middle East or in any other region where our cultural differences are markedly divergent.

This rational approach to foreign policy is a difficult sell.  Despite the fact that the U.S. government and academia were full of experts who really did and still do understand the cultural and political dynamics of the Middle East, we have been unable to make our policies there rational over the past decade.  In fact, many of those policies have been directly counterproductive to our national goals and interests.

The old, irrational way of doing business into which so many administrations have fallen over the decades, has done us so much damage that any move in a more rational direction is worth every bit of the time and effort it will demand.   And it all starts with a totally free and open domestic debate conducted by our national leadership about the Middle East and our interests, policies, and goals there.  For the first time in decades, that may now be meaningfully underway under the Obama administration. 

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief. A graduate of Dartmouth, he served in the Army Security Agency, undertook Russian regional studies at London University, and then joined the CIA. He served in Prague, Berlin, Langley, Beirut, Tehran, and Washington. During those 25 years, he worked primarily in Soviet and East European operations. He was also chief of the counterterrorism staff and executive assistant to Deputy Director of Central Intelligence Frank Carlucci. Since his retirement in 1980, he has lived in Vermont.

[Originally published on Nieman Watchdog.]

Using our military to try to deprive al Qaeda of sanctuaries will not bring us immunity from the next terrorist attack, writes a former CIA station chief. That attack can be organized, planned, funded and carried out from any safehouse in any country that allows freedom of movement. By contrast, as long as we use our military to try to mold the world to our liking, we are going to create more and more people and nations who will wish us ill, increasing the likelihood that we will be attacked again.

After 9/11, the Bush Administration concluded that it would have to look very carefully at every nation that could conceivably provide a launch pad for an al Qaeda attack on the United States.  Later it was further decided that any “failed state” in Islam could supply Al Qaeda with the environment it needed.

Of course, the state that harbored the 9/11 terrorists was not a failed state.  It was a state dominated by the Taliban.  In their Afghan facility, al Qaeda ran a complete terrorist training operation, grooming their troops for just about any conceivable paramilitary task.  They trained their recruits as guerillas, attack troops, bomb makers, snipers, suicide foot, car and truck bombers and anything else that struck them as appropriate for a terrorist organization.

What they could not train them to do in the Afghan mountain caves was to fly planes into buildings. They had to come to America for that training. Nor was it necessary for them to find a failed state or a friendly state in order to sit down and plan 9/11.  They could do that in just about any mud hut in the Pushtun countryside or in any other country that provided freedom of movement, like America, Spain, Germany, France or England, in all of which countries they have subsequently done just that.

Indeed,  9/11 was planned and then trained for in places that had absolutely nothing to do with failed states.  It would almost certainly have been successfully planned and carried out in the absence of a safe haven in Afghanistan.

We have recently been ominously informed that Somalia and the Yemen could easily turn into “failed states” that could provide support for al Qaeda training and plotting.  And if we look at a map, there are other states in Islam with which we do not enjoy cordial relationships, states that do not hold us in high esteem.  Any of these states could turn into a sanctuary for al Qaida.

Apparently the Saudis are concerned about a growing threat from the Yemen.  This concern is shared by Gen. David Petraeus, who recently told Congress that the weakness of Yemen’s government provides al Qaeda a safe haven and that terror groups could “threaten Yemen’s neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.”

So, there is some reason for our allies in the Middle East to be concerned about al Qaeda and failing states.  That may mean that we should also be concerned, as long as we understand that it is not a military issue which will directly involve the United States.  It is a security problem for the Saudis and should be handled by them and any other threatened country.

There are two lessons here.  The first is that there are always bad people doing bad things in the world.  It is important for us to learn that we are not responsible for rectifying all the world’s ills.  We need to let the rest of the world accept primary responsibility for its own wellbeing.

The second is that undertaking to keep states from failing and trying to make sure that al Qaeda doesn’t have any friends who will give them sanctuary will not bring us any sort of immunity from the next terrorist attack.  That attack can be organized, planned, funded and carried out from any safehouse in any part of the world that gives its residents a relative lack of scrutiny.  It requires neither a friendly nor a failing state.

As long as we are compulsively militarily involved in trying to mold the world to our liking, we are going to create more and more people and nations who will wish us ill, increasing the likelihood that we will be attacked again.

We are at a crossroads here.  At our own peril, we are either going to continue to undertake truly high risk military operations like the Iraq war in places like Afghanistan, Pakistan and perhaps elsewhere, or, having been given the opportunity to change as a result of the elections of November 2008, we can reassess our role in the world and consider the possibility that there are other ways to do our business that will not keep us stretched thin around the world and not put us constantly in military, political and economic jeopardy.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief, who served in Eastern and Western Europe, Lebanon and Tehran and as chief of the counter-terrorism staff.

[Originally published in the Barre Times-Argus and Rutland Herald.]

After 9/11, the Bush administration concluded that it would have to look very carefully at every nation that could conceivably provide a launch pad for an Al Qaida attack on the United States. Later it was further decided that any “failed state” would supply Al Qaida with the environment it would need and that we would therefore, presumably, have to see to it that no state in Islam failed.

Of course, Afghanistan was not a failed state. It was a state dominated by the Taliban. Our problem was that the Taliban had no problem with Al Qaida setting up shop on Afghan soil. So they did, and they trained their terrorists and we watched and waited until 9/11, before we truly galvanized.

In their Afghan facility, Al Qaida ran a complete terrorist training operation, grooming their troops for just about any conceivable paramilitary task. They trained their recruits as guerillas, attack troops, bomb makers, snipers, suicide foot, car and truck bombers and anything else that struck them as appropriate for a terrorist organization.

What they could not train them to do in the Afghan mountain caves was to fly planes into buildings. They had to come to America for that training. Nor was it necessary for them to find a failed state or a friendly state in order to sit down and plan 9/11. They could do that in just about any mud hut in the Pushtun countryside or in any other country that provided freedom of movement, like America, Spain, Germany, France or England, in all of which countries they have subsequently done just that. 9/11 was planned and then trained for in places that had absolutely nothing to do with failed states. It would almost certainly have been successfully planned and carried out in the absence of a safe haven in Afghanistan.

We have recently been ominously informed that Somalia and the Yemen could easily turn into “failed states” that could provide support for Al Qaida training and plotting. And if we look at a map, there are other states in Islam with which we do not enjoy cordial relationships, states that do not hold us in high esteem. Any of these states could turn into a sanctuary for Al Qaida.

Apparently the Saudis are concerned about a growing threat from the Yemen. This concern is shared by Gen. David Petraeus, who recently told Congress that the weakness of Yemen’s government provides Al Qaida a safe haven and that terror groups could “threaten Yemen’s neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.”

So, there is some reason for our allies in the Middle East to be concerned about Al Qaida and failing states. That may mean that we should also be concerned, as long as we understand that it is not a military issue which will directly involve the United States. It is a security problem for the Saudis and should be handled by them and any other threatened country.

There are two lessons here. The first is that there are always bad people doing bad things in the world. It is important for us to learn that we are not responsible for rectifying all the world’s ills. We need to let the rest of the world accept primary responsibility for its own wellbeing.

The second is that undertaking to keep states from failing and trying to make sure that Al Qaida doesn’t have any friends who will give them sanctuary will not bring us any sort of immunity from the next terrorist attack. That attack can be organized, planned, funded and carried out from any safehouse in any part of the world that gives its residents a relative lack of scrutiny. It requires neither a friendly nor a failing state.

As long as we are compulsively militarily involved in trying to mold the world to our liking, we are going to create more and more people and nations who will wish us ill, increasing the likelihood that we will be attacked again.

We are at a crossroads here. At our own peril, we are either going to continue to undertake truly high risk military operations like the Iraq war in places like Afghanistan, Pakistan and perhaps elsewhere, or, having been given the opportunity to change as a result of the elections of November 2008, we can reassess our role in the world and consider the possibility that there are other ways to do our business that will not keep us stretched thin around the world and not put us constantly in military, political and economic jeopardy.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief who served in East and West Europe, the Middle East and as chief of the counterterrorism staff.

[Originally published in The Herald of Randolph.]

America is all about checks and balances. We began it all by setting up our national government in a way that would spread power between the Judiciary, Executive and Legislative branches of Government. Each would provide checks and balances on the others.

This arrangement has forced us to compromise. Compromise, in the main, has brought us to the center, politically, economically and philosophically, helping us avoid the extremist pitfalls that have in the past characterized other, more authoritarian systems around the World.

In our national political arena, the spirit of compromise, as forced on us by the diffusion of power between the parties, has helped us achieve centrist moderation.  That has occasionally been painful, simply because on the political side, there have been times when one of the parties in our two party system, flush with long-term electoral success, has felt it had no reason to compromise with the other.  We have seen that recently and may see it soon again.

The arrogance of presumed power and the inclination to uncompromisingly stick it to the other party has often led to the ouster of the offending party and the restoration of power through the electoral re-installation of the opposition.  This situation has become more pronounced in recent decades as the Republicans and Democrats have become increasingly at philosophical odds.

We are in the middle of one of these changes right now.  We have gone from an essentially autocratic and politically partisan Bush Administration, which did pretty much as it wished, through national disenchantment with those policies, to their ouster and the re-installation of the Democrats.

Despite Obama’s inclination to reach out to the Republicans, which he appears to have sincerely wished to do, two unproductive issues have surfaced. On the left, there are indications that some Democrats would like to get even for the past eight years, where in contrast, the Republicans have lined up and voted in a bloc against all the important Obama initiatives designed to address our critical economic problems.

We have no experience with the economic problems that might teach us what to do today. Further, it would appear that the policies that helped get us here and which in many cases are now supported by congressional Republicans as viable solutions, are not going to get us out of the mess we are in.  It may be that Democratic policies also may not do the job either, but at least they have not been tried and already failed.

Yet, these attempts have passed despite 100% Republican Congressional disapproval.  Any non-partisan bystander who looks at this situation has to think that the Republicans are taking an incredible, all-or-nothing risk.  If the Democrats’ policies don’t work, they, the Republicans, win it all, BUT, and it’s a big but, if the Democrats are even only sufficiently correct, the Republicans will lose.

This may be a gamble that the Republican leadership, if there really is such a thing today outside the talk show circuit, is prepared to take.  It may be a risk that the Democrats, believing that their policies will succeed, are also prepared to take.  Those real gamblers are, in the main, the most radical and partisan members of both political parties, those who see political annihilation of the other party as a good thing.

However, if you are an Independent, Democrat or Republican and from the political center, this has all the earmarks of an impending disaster. The existence of either a too weak or a too strong party is dangerous.  What you don’t want if you are a centrist, is for either party to lose big-time.  All that does is put the radicals in charge – the ones who more than anything else, want to use their new power to get even with the party that put them through hell for their preceding years in the political wilderness – and permits them to promote their most radical policies.

The only hopeful sign for moderate, non-partisan centrists at this moment is the indication that some Republicans have been increasingly supporting Obama-sponsored legislation against the wishes of their party leadership.  This can be seen in the recent bills addressing credit card fraud, financial fraud and predatory housing lending, all of which have drawn Republican support.

The divisiveness we have seen over the past few decades has been of little service to this country.  We were far better off when major differences between the two parties were few and far between and when changes from administration by one party to the other did not presage traumatic political, social and economic change. We need the checks and balances provided by two viable parties with minor, not major differences.

A little more bipartisanship today could help us a lot tomorrow.

Haviland Smith was a long-term resident of Brookfield.  He now lives in Williston.

[Originally published in the Rutland Herald and Barre Times-Argus.]

Most Americans who are watching current revelations about our past torture practices and related abuses, or “enhanced interrogation techniques,” seem primarily interested in the extent and nature of those activities. We can all speak to the downside of torture in terms of our world standing. However, in the arcane world of secret intelligence, many professionals are asking precisely what if any benefits have accrued as a result of these questionable activities. More simply put, does torture work and do we really need it?

Interrogation is one of the techniques used by intelligence officers working to obtain information. It rests somewhere in a continuum that includes interviewing, recruitment, debriefing and elicitation.

The most basic of these techniques is arguably recruitment, in which an intelligence officer seeks to obtain the cooperation of a prospective agent for the purpose of producing needed intelligence. Recruitment attempts can be categorized into two general categories, collaborative and coercive. Of these two, collaborative recruitments have been the only ones that have been consistently successful. Coercive recruitments rarely work because there is no communality of interest, only the threat of some as yet undefined punishment for the prospective recruit.

Collaborative recruitment is like seduction. It involves a dynamic in which two people realize that they have a common goal and then work together to reach that goal. The point is, as a mutually shared process and goal, it works only if there is some positive benefit in it for both participants.

Interrogation is a totally different process. It starts with the fact that it involves one person who has been captured or arrested and is now being held captive by another, creating an uneven situation in which there is no mutual benefit in sight. That means that at the onset of the interrogation process, there is no identity of purpose between captor and captive. There is only reason for him to do everything he thinks will help him survive.

In an uneven, captor/captive situation, the captive – and this is particularly true in military or intelligence operations – has no reason to tell the truth. He has every reason to try to figure out what his captor wants to learn, and then try to provide it. He will say virtually anything to stop torture, but will be terrified to reveal the real truth, realizing that doing so will probably end the interrogation process, bringing a totally uncertain future for him, perhaps even death!

Truly gifted interrogators say unequivocally that they can move from the essentially hostile imbalance that is inherent at the beginning of an interrogation to the stage of mutual advantage found in a recruitment scenario simply by approaching the captive as if he were a recruitment target. At that point, using the same process of seduction, he not only establishes a mutuality of interest, but completely removes all the disadvantages of coercion.

Members of the Bush administration and the occasional “anonymous CIA source” have consistently told us that waterboarding has produced critical intelligence. Yet, admissions have crept into the public domain that not all of what was learned was true or accurate, or that it was really the result of waterboarding. Many of the most experienced and successful Military and FBI interrogators support this conclusion, saying it simply does not work and that, even if it did, we can get the information we need without using it.

We live in an unfortunate environment in which, thanks to mass media productions like Fox TV’s “24”, many Americans have been led to believe that torture produces critical intelligence. As that is the primary argument used by proponents of enhanced interrogation, it simply must be challenged and cleared up. The keys to this matter lie probably the cases of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Abu Zubaydah, and Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri.

If it is found that torture is productive, the debate formed in the Bush era on the legality of enhanced interrogation will continue. Next we will examine whether or not it is really needed. Regardless of the result, this process will probably end with the banning of these techniques based simply on their illegality.

However, if it can be established, as it is claimed by so many successful and experienced interrogators, that torture does not work and really never has, and that we can get the information we need without it, there will be no need for further debate.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA station chief who served in East and West Europe, the Middle East and as chief of the counterterrorism staff.

[Originally published in the Barre Times-Argus and Rutland Herald.  Published with a few minor changes in the Herald of Randolph, April 30, 2009.]

American and other western media have learned recently of the existence of a new marriage law in Afghanistan that they have characterized as legalizing rape within marriage and forbidding married women from leaving the house without permission.

It has made good copy and, in playing on the “backward and anti-human rights” aspects of the bill, the media, at last count, have managed to incite protests from the British, United States, French, New Zealand and Canadian governments, as well as the United Nations and numerous feminine rights organizations. All have responded with righteous condemnation, a completely understandable reaction.

But this melodrama is interesting not just because of its inflammatory allegations of legalized rape, or for discussions of the appropriateness of the Western response to the story. It is far more interesting in the way it illuminates the problems that exist for the West in general and the United States in particular, in formulating and implementing foreign policies for the Muslim world.

Mohammad Asif Mohseni, a senior Afghan cleric and a main drafter of the law, has said that a woman must have sex on demand with her husband at least every four days, unless she is ill or would be harmed by intercourse. He amplified, saying, “it is essential for the woman to submit to the man’s sexual desire”.

In addition, he has said that the legislation cannot be revoked or changed because it was enacted through the bi-cameral legislative process and signed by President Karzai.

However, Mohseni’s most interesting and telling comment was that “The Westerners claim that they have brought democracy to Afghanistan. What does democracy mean? It means government by the people for the people. They should let the people use these democratic rights”. He further condemned the western outcry saying that Western countries were trying to thwart democracy because the results did not please them.

In our culture, forced sex in or out of marriage is equated with rape. It is therefore at least inappropriate and probably illegal.

In Afghanistan, the law that in our eyes “legalizes rape”, was drafted after three years of debate by Islamic scholars and Afghan legislators and is supported by hundreds of women who affixed their signatures or thumbprints to it.

Looking at the new law through our cultural filter, the American Government and most Americans roundly condemn such legislation as at least unethical or immoral, probably as illegal and certainly as unacceptable.

The Afghan government as well as most Afghan men and significant numbers of Afghan women, accept it as reflecting the Koran, Shariya law and tradition, the bases of Islamic law.

The 1948 U.N. Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UNDHR) was passed in 1948. No matter how appropriate and universal it seems to us, it has never been universally accepted. Quite the opposite, it has precipitated a nagging debate that has persisted over the last 60 years. Muslim countries have always objected, saying that the document was written in the Judeo-Christian tradition and as such, failed to acknowledge the cultural and religious differences of Islamic countries, thus denying Muslims the freedom and right to a dignified life under their universally accepted Shariya law.

How could anyone possibly object to such fundamental truths as those in the UNDHR, we ask?

Much as we would like to think that our laws are a perfect reflection of mankind, there are plenty of other humans who would argue that point. Those differences are greatest where the belief systems are farthest apart.

All human beings are victims or beneficiaries of their own ethnocentric cultural environments and biases. Laws exist as contemporary forms of cultural traditions and when one culture begins to tell another very different culture what is right and wrong, there is bound to be friction and conflict.

For a major world power like America, this often translates into a form of cultural imperialism which seems to compel us to export our philosophy of life and system of government. One of the many problems this brings on is that when America decides to export democracy an Islamic country, for example, we are heading for trouble. The extraordinary cultural differences between the regions, coupled with a curious inability of our leaders to understand those differences, lead us into situations we might better avoid and which we have great difficulty understanding.

Who are we to say that our culture is right and theirs is wrong? And yet, that is invariably the problem when we start to tell disparate parts of the world how to run their lives.

Absent a real understanding of Islam and the differences between us, it is incredibly difficult, as we have seen over the past seven years, to conceive and implement a successful foreign policy based on American cultural values for a region with wildly different cultural biases.

The best way for America to handle these differences is to show our way of life by example, not by preaching or by force. When we get to the point where we can do that consistently, people will admire our values and seek our systems and there will be no reason for us to try to export them. There is truth in the premise of John Winthrop’s “shining city on the hill.”

Haviland Smith is a former CIA station chief.

[Originally published in the Randolph Herald.]

It is absolutely amazing and to his infinite credit that President Obama, faced with critical economic and political problems at home, can, at the same time keep multiple foreign policy balls juggled happily in the air. Yet, he has done so and for someone denigrated as a foreign policy neophyte, he hasn’t made a real substantive  mistake.

Obama broke precedent when he decided to visit a Muslim country rather than Israel on his first trip to the Middle East. That was risky enough, but in the course of the visit, he got into an exceedingly delicate area where few Americans have ventured before him.  He entered the fray on the issue of the Armenian genocide.

This issue centers on the deaths of over 500,000 Turkish Armenians at the hands of the Turkish government between 1915-1918. The deaths have never been acknowledged as genocide by succeeding Turkish governments and that denial has become an issue for the European countries which hold sway over the entry of Turkey into the European Union.

It is, to say the very least, an extraordinarily delicate subject for the Turks. Yet Obama did broach the topic and did so in a way that was helpful and, quite remarkably, relatively inoffensive to both Turks and Armenians. His words are thought to have had a positive effect and we absolutely need to keep Turkey as a friend.

In addition, it has been most gratifying to hear the President finally put some perspective in the issue of our struggle with fundamentalist Muslim terrorism and al Qaida. He has recognized it as an irritant and as an ancillary problem, particularly in Afghanistan, not as the existential problem it was portrayed to be under President Bush where the greater the problem he painted terrorism, the greater problem it became.

In further comments, the President appears to have somehow put a dying two-state solution for Palestine back in play. In an environment which has just seen a new Israeli government in the person of its Prime Minister Netanyahu and it’s Foreign Minister Liebermann totally reject consideration of such a two state solution, that solution, the old nemesis of right wing Israelis and left wing Palestinians, is at least once again open for discussion.

From Israel’s point of view, this solution would mean that they would have to give up any hope of retaining the vast majority of their settlements on Palestinian soil, while the Palestinians and their most radical supporters would have to recognize the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state at peace with its neighbors.

More to the point, before Obama’s support of this solution, it was felt by many that it was finally dead in the water, having been killed by both Palestinian and Israeli radicals.  It would now appear to have some life and since that particular solution is the only one that will satisfy any of the needs of both sides, its resuscitation has to be considered a good thing.

In addition to these good things, the President has made two very important additional breaks with the old Bush Administration Middle East  policies.  He has said he will treat Muslims with respect and that America is not at war with Islam. That may not seem like much, but when you consider that the Bush Administration’s policies were the exact opposite and that Muslims around the world believed Bush, the change really is important.

Due respect in Islam is extremely important. It provides the basis for all human relations.  When it is not employed, it is viewed as a hostile act.  Thus, the Bush Administration really was at war with Islam for they showed that hostility every day with their jingoistic language and macho, good vs. evil  rhetoric – “Axis of Evil”, “rogue states”, “outposts of tyranny”, “enemies of freedom”, dead or alive”, “bring ‘em on” to name but a few.  And all of this to create and support, through fomenting fear at home and hatred abroad, the Neoconservative goal of the ”long war”.

A return to due respect and civility will be absolutely critical if we are to rediscover purposeful and successful negotiations around our Middle East issues with states like Israel, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.  The President has taken the first step in that process, a step without which any such approach would never get off the ground, for It is an unfortunate fact that many Muslims have, for the last seven years, viewed America and its troops as the new Crusaders.  That furthers none of our goals in the region.

Haviland Smith is a retired CIA Station Chief who served in East and West Europe, the Middle East and as Chief of the Counterterrorism Staff.  A longtime resident of Brookfield, he now lives in Williston.